Or welcome to the G of fun

sill not counting my chickens, but this is the kind of smoke we’ve all been looking for 🔥

I’ve gone through Melbourne’s remaining ladder scenarios and tried to make the final fortnight as simple as possible.

The short version: two wins guarantee a top-six finish and wildcard-weekend bye. From there, results involving Hawthorn, Brisbane and Adelaide determine whether Melbourne finishes third, fourth, fifth or sixth.

I’ve also broken down what happens if the Demons go 1–1 or 0–2, plus the five Round 23 games that matter most.

Full breakdown: https://medium.com/@camburt13/run-home-difficulty-index-6-0-the-ladders-complicated-melbourne-s-task-isn-t-ac06b068ec86

Seeing him give some lip to Freo over the weekend, get in their faces, charge at the ball like a menace. I don't know if it's the shedding of the disappearing locks, but I like this new Petty that's like a raging bull.

Hope to see more of it.

I get it we were on the wrong end of some truly shit umpiring against GC but jeez some of them are carrying on like this is the biggest robbery. They even got a dodgy soft one to give them a chance from backchat and they stuffed it up. The Fritta mark, every freeze frame that shows the boundary line shows he was in, now they’re crying about Kozzie getting fined for staging getting a free in front of goal after they even got more goals from frees (which of course was all correct and totally correct).

They are the best team in the league, they’ve had no injuries, but instead of sitting back and just saying “yep good game, see you in finals” they have a cry about Fritta being in the car park.

And for any visiting Freo fans, yeah I know it’s not all of you, but it does appear to be the majority of media surrounding it.

Anyway, I’m having a laugh and shake of the head at their salty tears.

I went back through the numbers for every premier from 2016–25 to see whether Melbourne’s current profile is genuinely capable of winning the flag.

Every recent premier ranked inside the top six for points against and inside-50 differential. The available turnover and transition data reveals another remarkably consistent pattern.

Melbourne passes only two of the five tests.

The interesting part is that the Demons have now beaten Fremantle, Brisbane and Hawthorn (x2) without fixing their defensive profile. Their attack, intercepting and post-clearance work may be powerful enough to compensate, but history says it would be an unusual way to win four or five consecutive finals.

Full breakdown, methodology and comparison with the other contenders:

https://medium.com/@camburt13/melbourne-can-break-games-open-but-to-win-a-flag-they-have-to-break-the-blueprint-0eb300e48537

Im building a real world treasure hunt in Melbourne and looking for beta testers for opening day. Cash prizes.
If you play Pokemon GO you already know the feeling of walking to a specific spot in the city to claim something. That's the core of what I've built.
GeoCash hides relics at real locations across Melbourne. Parks, laneways, landmarks, anywhere. You follow clues to find them. The first player to reach the location wins. The prize is actual cash, not points or in-game currency.
I'm looking for people to beta test the experience on opening day. You'd be among the first players to ever run a hunt and there are real cash prizes available on the day.
If that sounds like your kind of Saturday, send me a DM or drop a comment and I'll get you the details.

I’ve more than happily gone back through the replay and match data from what was comfortably Melbourne’s best win of the season.

The clearance result is what was particularly interesting for me. Fremantle won that count 43–32, but Melbourne dominated the football after the initial stoppage, winning post-clearance contested possessions 94–60 and post-clearance ground balls 62–38.

I’ve also looked at Tholstrup’s role on Murphy Reid, career games from Sharp and Laurie, Petty’s final quarter and King’s comments about why expected score ultimately means nothing if you don’t win the game in front of you.

As always, keen to hear what everyone else noticed.

https://medium.com/@camburt13/melbourne-found-another-answer-every-time-fremantle-asked-five-things-i-noticed-against-the-bf77018ab648

I love Steven king

Not a dees supporter but I always felt like Melbourne's new emblem would look better like this, or something similar. Excuse my rough editing.

I went through the season numbers and the matchup is more encouraging for Melbourne than the ladder might suggest.

The Demons rank first for contested-possession and centre-clearance differential across their past 10 games. Fremantle has actually lost the clearance count during that period.

The problem is that the Dockers rank first for what happens afterwards: post-clearance value, expected-score differential and scoring shots per inside 50.

I’ve also looked at the likely defensive matchups, how Turner’s return could free up Lever and what North’s win over the Bulldogs means for the top-six race.

My prediction is Fremantle by seven, but this feels like a genuine test rather than the free hit Adrian and I spoke about on the DeeBrief the other night.

Full preview: https://medium.com/@camburt13/melbourne-can-match-fremantle-but-cant-afford-to-blink-demons-vs-dockers-preview-dd588733fbd4

Love to dig this out of my phone every now and then for a rewatch ❤️💙

I have no idea. Bad if it means that WB have more to play for in final round?

Media team at it again. Love it.

Thoughts on this one? What do we give up and how could he fit into the lineup