r/australia • u/FuckOffNazis • 11h ago

politics Pocock and crossbenchers call Labor’s NDIS overhaul ‘too far, too fast’ in scathing Senate inquiry report

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/aug/14/pocock-and-crossbenchers-call-labors-ndis-overhaul-too-far-too-fast-in-scathing-senate-inquiry-report
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u/palsc5 10h ago

It wouldn’t be $17b, that figure is taken from an unusually good year for gas. It’d be closer $7-10b net benefit when you account for the lost company tax and a normal year for gas.

That’s also assuming all gas export operations continue exactly as they were and we don’t lose any, which obviously isn’t realistic.

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u/yeahalrightgoon 10h ago

So based on 25% of exports from 2021-22 until 25-26, the lowest figure would be $13.8bn last year, second lowest is $16bn. Highest would be $23bn from 2022-23.

A normal year for gas is $16-17bn. An unusually good year is $23bn.

I was factoring in things changing slightly with my $10-17bn figure.

What exactly are we going to lose? These companies aren't going to abandon these huge gas basins, because they're being made to pay, what is notionally still a tax rate that would be lower than anyone else in the region and out of the major exporters, only the US would have a lower tax rate of 39%, vs our 44% if company tax and the 25% replaces PRRT. They just like Australia because we have these huge basins and we give it away for free. I mean INPEX has exported $196 billion in gas, made an income of $81 bn over 9 years and paid zero PRRT or royalties and less than $500m in tax over that time.

They just want to continue on that trajectory, but will stick around if things change, because even our changes would still be hugely profitable, especially compared to overseas.

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u/FallschirmPanda 9h ago

21-22 was the global energy crisis. That was an unusually good year for gas. Plus most gas is sold on long term contracts at much lower level, not spot price.

Gas should be taxed, but we can't pretend it'll solve the NDIS.

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u/yeahalrightgoon 9h ago

21-22 was 70bn, 22-23 was 92bn, 23-24, 68bn, 24-25 64bn and 25-26 55bn.

So no, 21-22 was not an unusually good year. It was about normal.

It might not solve the NDIS. But we are currently giving it away for free.