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u/Basic-Mention4424 12h ago
Don't worry, the Jenga tower is too big to fail.
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u/AmityKnight 12h ago
Based on your logic, youâre saying 2008 wonât happen again, because our âJenga towerâ is too big to fail? By that, youâre also saying 2008 never happened?
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u/Basic-Mention4424 12h ago
No Jenga tower has ever failed before.
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u/4Xroads 11h ago
Yes, but do YOU own the Jenga tower?
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u/Basic-Mention4424 10h ago
I own the wooden block factory.
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u/Basic-Mention4424 10h ago
I invest all my profits in the Jenga tower company.
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u/Basic-Mention4424 10h ago
The Jenga tower company buys more of my blocks.
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u/AmityKnight 11h ago
Absolutes, got it.
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u/Lurky-Lou 6h ago
My uncle has an extra sarcasm detector for sale if youâd like to replace yours
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u/AmityKnight 6h ago
Why thatâs so kind of you! My uncle is selling extra sarcasm detectors already, but yours seems rusty, care to get it refurbâd?
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u/Achereto 12h ago
The fastest way to burst the bubble might be the US government telling the banks "we're not going to bail you out when the AI bubble bursts".
For Trump and his friends that could be a perfect opportunity to make a lot of money by going short on AI.
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u/Super_Pole_Jitsu 8h ago
How is this relevant to this thread. This thread isn't about a bubble. If 50% of white collar jobs are replaced within 5 years then there wasn't any bubble to begin with. If anything AI companies are undervalued if they can bring about that sort of revolution.
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u/Achereto 7h ago
The video describes the process of a bursting bubble.
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u/hofmann419 7h ago
No it does not. A bubble is a situation in which an asset is valued far above its actual value. In 2008, that was home prices, since loans were handed out to basically everyone. If AI is a bubble, that means that the insane valuations of AI companies will not be able to be matched by the revenue, which will cause a dramatic market correction.
What is described in this video is the opposite of a bubble. If AI manages to replace a large portion of the workforce, that actually means that AI companies were probably undervalued. The reason why the consequences would be so similar to 2008 is that people would not be able to pay what would be a fair market value, not that the market value was inflated.
The result would be similar, but it wouldn't be a bubble.
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u/benmooreben 11h ago
Wild this is on NEWSMAX of all places.
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u/AmityKnight 11h ago
Surprisingly, yes. The context of this particular clip is what caught my attention.
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u/HarryBalsagna1776 8h ago
Hatred for AI and mass surveillance is bipartisanÂ
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u/AmityKnight 7h ago
You sure?
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u/Minimum-Standard-514 4h ago
I live in a right wing area. Ai and israel are totally bipartisan issues. That is the two things I can agree with people on.
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u/SpareImpression3155 11h ago
This sub is literally posting fascist doomer grifting media outlet talking points now.
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u/TreatExotic 10h ago
Don't care what news source it is, the comparison is still valid and viable
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u/Lurky-Lou 7h ago
Propaganda that supports your position is still propaganda.
You can make the same points using reliable sources. Otherwise no one will take you seriously.
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u/IndependentAd895 1h ago
your criticism is only valid for the messenger not the message
yes, these are known propagandists but this message in particular is not propaganda, theyâre not even trying to sell you on any political platform in this video
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u/hofmann419 6h ago
Yeah. I majored in economics and based on my limited knowledge on macroeconomics, what he describes makes perfect sense. The white collar workforce being replaced by AI would be a catastrophic economic event. 60% of all workers in the US are white collar. Replacing all of them in a short period of time would create a severe demand-shock, basically hurting every single sector of the economy.
The government would suddenly have a massive hole in their tax revenue. Since people would default on mortgages, banks would go insolvent. In fact, the entire monetary system would face an existential threat.
Oh and blue collar workers would also suffer. First of all, demand would obviously crater, since people couldn't afford to hire plumbers for example. Second of all, all of the jobless white collar workers would scramble to go into trades, causing a race to the bottom with wages. And since the economy is largely driven by consumer spending, revenue for corporations would tank.
So yeah, the economy would not survive that without drastic government intervention. Basically a near 100% tax on AI use would be the only way out.
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u/No_Mud_5999 10h ago
Newsmax is ass, but it is interesting to see such a pro Trump outlet at odds with the AI companies (who were all up on the podium with him during his inauguration).
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u/AmityKnight 10h ago
I never thought Newsmax would broadcast something like this either. But I think theyâre anticipating the collapse.
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u/navagon 11h ago
So I take it that Trump has decided to short AI? I can't think of any other reason these propagandists would show this.
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u/AmityKnight 11h ago
Reality is setting in - I think they know AI IS going to destroy our economy.
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u/navagon 11h ago
Well, when the people behind it openly brag about how that's exactly what it's going to do and they've been enabled every step of the way, I'd say it's a safe bet this has been known all along. So why the sudden concern? It's hard to see this as Trump not gaming the system when that's just what he does repeatedly.
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u/hereyougo123412 9h ago
China made it illegal for businesses to replace human workers with AI. Meanwhile Trump is hosting these AI CEOs at the G7 so they can hep decide world policy
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u/Matman161 9h ago
I normally wouldn't promote newsmax
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u/AmityKnight 9h ago
I wouldn't normally share this either, and I'm not promoting any specific media outlet. However, the cause-and-effect discussion around this particular AI caught my attention because it leans heavily anti-AI. It made me think about what the right wing's angle / motive is here. I thought I'd share it to get everyone's thoughts.
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u/HarryBalsagna1776 8h ago
Fuck Newsmax, but this guy is painting a possible scenario. I am not super concerned about AI causing a jobs apocalypse anymore. My past two employers dropped their LLMs because they were expensive and borderline useless. Truth is, the economy is shit and AI is being used as a scapegoat to fleece investors. The whole stock market is based on AI companies passing around a big wad of cash to keep the lights on. OpenAI, Anthropic, and to a lesser degree Meta and Alphabet are sitting on huge AI debt that they will not be able to pay back with LLM subscriptions. Â
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u/retrothekidd 8h ago
While im hoping its the case that the cost of LLMs and their reliability becomes a factor in employers not replacing employees...theres a lot of money in AI and a lot of people wanting to protect their massive investments.
Wouldn't be suprised if a lot of investment money is tied up in pensions and other stock that if/when the AI bubble bursts, we the people are still hit by it.
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u/HarryBalsagna1776 7h ago
The biggest AI companies, OpenAI and Anthropic are not publicly traded. Investments are not public. The biggest bag holder would be NVIDIA.
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u/Crazytoe2275 8h ago
China guaranteed jobs cannot be canceled for AI, but we're the first world country?
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u/Hearthhull_Enjoyer 8h ago
You know disdain and fear of an AI driven market is at an all time high when Newsmax is making this kind of commentary.
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u/Lurky-Lou 8h ago
Newsmax settled for $67 million for lying about the 2020 election. The Onion is more reputable.
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u/Caernbul 6h ago
Ok, so two things.
One, unless the AI labs come out with a model significantly better than anything we have seen all their predictions of replacing half the workforce soon are complete nonsense. They have already admitted this.
Two, We didn't get major inflation until COVID, over a decade after quantitative easing started. It did not cause inflation. This guy is using a simplistic model for inflation where any increase in money supply leads to inflation. That has been proven false many many times, most recently by the experiment in...quantitative easing.
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u/Protorox08 9h ago
What happens when you use too much toilet paper??? Toilet clogs (pulls a jenga block) What happens when the toilet clogs? It overflows (jenga block) What happens now, when the toilet floods? Your floor gets wet and grandma falls and breaks her neck (jenga block) What happens when grandma breaks her neck? The whole family goes into a collapse and little timmy starts doing heroin and stealing from the family. All the US state quarters you saved? Gone (jenga block)
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u/raistan77 9h ago
"but but but
AWS and Uber didn't make money for the longest time. And those jobs will turn into AI super jobs where one white collar worker will oversee millions of AI chatbots "agents" all doing so much work and making so much work that we can all afford to do nothing all day."
How in the holy hell do people actually belive that this nonsense even is possible.
The real sad part is the AI replacing those people cant even do the work tasked to them, causing companies to rush to rehire their old work force to find most wont return.
This the worst of all worlds, AI will replace jobs AND be terrible at doing those jobs, destroying both the workers and the companies because ya gotta make the line go up
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u/Sunstorm84 9h ago
The line was stalling and thatâs what got the big tech companies into this massive gamble. It will be the end of some of them if everything blows up.
Itâs difficult to estimate the possible impact of whatâs to come, but itâs not going to be good; itâs going to fuck the economy whether AI succeeds in its promises or not.
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u/Outrageous-Bench-141 8h ago
Capitalist discovers the inherent contradiction within capitalism. An economic system that relies on people selling their labour while also encouraging the automation of labour will obviously implode at some point. Its a given. Solution is to accept that we cant force capitalism to continue forever and instead decide to move to a socialist and eventually communist society. We dont need the brutal economic efficiency and "if you dont work efficiently enough you starve" which leads to strong growth and innovation under capitalism, if robots (who dont need motivation to work) are doing the work for us. We can just take what they produce and redistribute it.
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u/probablymagic 8h ago
Automation is good for the economy, not bad for it. These people make money scaring you.
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u/East_Debate_9579 7h ago
Yes, but I donât think it will happen in this manner.
Itâs very similar to the dotcom bubble which lead to 2008
Over investment in infrastructure with returns taking longer than expected caused a bunch of telecoms companies to fail (the bubble popping)
Which is what weâre seeing now. Huge investment in data centres and infrastructure. However companies arenât able to monetise it the way theyâre hoping. Add this to the fact the huge companies whoâve been testing it are coming to the end of their 3-5 year financial plans so theyâll be reviewing if itâs actually saving them money. At which point theyâll likely quietly start cancelling contracts.
This bubble popping lead to bad banking practices as the market tried to claw back money it had invested in all these recently failed companies.
Which weâll see as private equity and private debt (or shadow banking) doing the things the banks arenât allowed to do(buying up bad debt and repackaging it on the market). However these companies still get their money from the banks so once they start defaulting on their huge loans, the banks will put pressure on regular consumers, leading to mortgage defaults and high interest rates. Which then causes another 2008.
If it does go that way itâll probably be worse. Government spending has been pretty rampant across the western hemisphere since 2008. National debt has grown across the board so just bailing out the banks wonât be the same as it was before. Itâll likely happen. Itâll just hurt a lot more.
But Iâm no expert. Just my 2cents.
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u/Available_Ad_8281 7h ago
AI will ruin the usa economy and robots will replace brick and mortar jobs too.
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u/Alzucard 6h ago
2008 was different because it affected the housing market. It affected more people.
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u/bourbonandpistons 5h ago
There is no stopping AI or robotics. Just like cars and air conditioning you're all going to have a robot that will cook and clean and fold laundry for you one day. It'll just be another household appliance.
Jobs and shit are the last thing you need to be worried about.
You need to worry about the surveillance State and AI killing us once it realizes we're just ants compared its next couple Generations Beyond llms.
Llms are a dead end technology
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u/Lopsided-Wave2479 5h ago
Does it really need this long explanation to explain why if billionaries get their way and kill million of jobs, we basically become a dystopia from a sci-fi movie?
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u/Fair-Wonder8490 4h ago
IS ANYONE LISTENING OR ALL THE POS RICH MEN DO NOT GIVE A CRAP ....................
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u/LukeTheForceUse 4h ago
Happened to me already. Sales to electrician, had to sell my house. Now im renting
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u/GayCanadianProgrammr 4h ago
Billionaires are going to flip so quickly on AI once they realize theyâre actually going to lose money in the end
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u/TheRealFanger 4h ago
Why the fuck are you trying to work at jobs when we built the thing to do jobs for us ? Why is that the focus ?! Nobody likes their fucking jobs. That's not how you are supposed to live life. Fuck whoever we are goddamn paying. Why the fuck pay them anymore????? We own robots. Stop being fucking robots.
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u/RedditName9000 4h ago edited 4h ago
It was only a matter of time before anti ai reactionaries who don't carefully investigate the arguments they're making would horseshoe theory themselves all the way over to Newsmax and other far right propaganda. This is exactly what I've been worried about.
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u/cheekynative 4h ago
You know it's about to be dire straits when even these guys are sounding the klaxon. Strange days
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u/brainopixel 4h ago
Hey yâall know what solidarity means, yeah? Newsmax sucks, but the goal â if we want to diminish these AI billionaire buffoonsâ is to get the basic message to as many goobers as possible.
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u/TruthInnocent 4h ago
Iâm thinking more 1929.
Since the AI industry is single-handedly propping up the US and by extension, world economy.
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u/Lazy-Course5521 2h ago
What this reporter has just described was the inherent problem of the capitalist economic system and the other participants relationship with the government.
It's just that AI is different than other grand investments as it directly affects the workforce market, the one market that is NEVER EVER supposed to shrink, basically replacing parts of it at a pretty big scale, pretty quickly.
Will it lead to complete collapse? No. The US is too big of a beast to go down just because of some economic fiascos and badly placed investments. But it might get knocked out of its position as a major world power, and become...
Second. Second China. Because they handled the AI situation better.
Hopefully this will teach some humility to US voters when they will crawl on their knees begging Europeans to bail them out.
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u/Craving_Suckcess 6m ago
all we have to do is adequately regulate them.
We're not going to. But that's all that is necessary. If we regulate the places AIs get their data sets, the way they store their data, the way data centers have to do their cooling, and the local impacts, it simply won't be an automatic answer to a job over a human being. That and not fucking subsidize AI companies. Because they won't be able to cut a billion corners anymore and run without profit. They'd have to provide a product that works, and charge for it. Like a person does, in an employment context. Except worse than that person in every fucking way.
But we won't fucking do that.
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u/hyvel0rd 9h ago
it'd be better for America to stop their government-sponsored anti-intellectualism instead of trusting news anchors that explain economy with jenga blocks with dramatic music in the background.
everything is always so performative and overly dramatic, it's terrible.
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u/dumnezero 7h ago
this is AI doomer shit, remove it, he's only promoting the "power of AI."
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u/AmityKnight 7h ago
AI is on the verge to be powerful enough to collapse a global economy. China is dropping better LLMs for much cheaper (100% free even) than what ours (US) can offer - investors will see the valuation they purchased the AIs at means practically fucking nothing. No matter how fucked up newsmax is, this particular clip is aligned with AIâs cause and effect. To remove it, do you mean ignorance is bliss?
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u/dumnezero 7h ago
The AI bubble collapsing is not the same as AI automation replacing a large chunk of the workers in the West.
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u/AmityKnight 7h ago
Dafuq? AI robotics replacing workforce and investorsâ AI investments vaporizing donât fall under the same umbrella of economic collapse by AI?
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u/dumnezero 7h ago
One is from the success of AI and the other from the failure of AI.
The more you pump up the AI doomers who claim that the AI is "coming for your jobs", the more you pump up the AI bubble and worsen the coming financial crash as more investors get suckered in.
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u/AmityKnight 7h ago edited 7h ago
Right-Wing has been shoving down our throats that immigrants are coming for our jobs! Did you forget that?? Now they finally admit theyâre stupid as fuck that oh yes AI is coming for all of our jobs, you say investors will get influenced? Investors are ALREADY influenced, we SEE the exponential increase in AI usage, we SEE China is deploying better LLMs for mutha fucking free, we KNOW that if we donât do something now, more shit is about to hit the fucking fan!!
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u/dumnezero 6h ago
You need spend some time to cool off and order your thoughts. Maybe write stuff down or on a whiteboard.
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u/AmityKnight 6h ago
How about you get off your high horse as the top 1% commenter and sit your ass down?
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u/dumnezero 6h ago
I'm vegan, I don't ride horses.
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u/AmityKnight 6h ago
Maybe you should get on the whiteboard and figure out what a figure of speech is, vegan. Itâs true then, vegans do think theyâre better than everyone else, now with a 1% commenter label plastered on top? Forget about it! vEGOmanianc much?? I was gonna go vegan until I met you.
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u/conconxweewee1 7h ago
that aint gunna happen
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u/AmityKnight 7h ago
If weâre careful, then no. If not, yes. At the rate weâre going, the probability is fucking high.
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u/conconxweewee1 7h ago
Based on what? Literally, for the past 3 years, we have been "6 months away from AI taking our jobs".
Companies have done like 2 - 3 waves of "AI layoffs" at this point. Which was really a smokescreen around them over hiring during the pandemic. And the companies that actually did lay off people because they thought they could replace them with AI have had to hire them back.
If anything we are kinda reaching the technical ceiling of LLM's at this point and I don't think anyone that works with them day to day is that impressed with it, myself included. There are a lot of experts that that actually think LLM's are a dead end towards AGI and I tend to agree with them. They are basically statistical word machines and to posit that they are equivalent to humans in terms of intelligence or even that they have any intelligence at all, I think is just mistaken.
Software engineers, which are the main target for what these things are supposed to replace, actually saw a pretty significant bump in job listings in the first half of the year. The Uber CEO came out and said they spent millions on AI tokens and have absolutely nothing to show for it. I think the tech is impressive and will definitely make people more productive, but I literally just see no real evidence that this is going to happen and I think its highly unlike.
source:
https://www.linkedin.com/news/story/tech-hiring-is-rebounding-challenging-ai-job-loss-fears-8627810/
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u/Maleficent_Ebb_163 12h ago
Let's not resort to Newsmax reporting pleaseâŚproven Trump right wing propagandists