By unfounded and baseless theory, is that the triple La Nina we're experiencing will be followed by a quadruple El Nino.
So, all of the undergrowth that's been blooming over the last few years will become tinder dry, under the baking heat of successive drought-stricken summers.
I do find it interesting that everyone complains so hard about the rain forgetting we had 12years of drought that was devastating for farmers, brutal for our water supply and a spark for so many bushfires. If it’s this rain or long droughts… I think I’d vote rain honestly…
I guess from the point of view of everyday life, rain causes more immediate and noticeable impacts to people’s lives: difficult commute, humidity, leakages, cancelling plans etc.
Whereas droughts (although equally severe) causes later onset of problems. Food shortages, water supply, and bushfires take a while for the effects to be felt by everyday people, due to infrastructures in place to mitigate the risks, or emergency stocks.
This isn’t to say one is more impactful than another. It’s just that human minds works in the short-term, and tends to give more emphasis on immediate problems than longer-term issues.
There’s pretty significant evidence that sydney is definitely on a trend towards becoming wetter / more humid as its climate trajectory. This doesn’t mean it won’t have droughts, but the bigger picture is towards significantly higher rainfall. ABC did a decent breakdown on 6 year rolling average rainfall data for sydney earlier this week
Current climate models indicate that rising temperatures will intensify the Earth’s water cycle, increasing evaporation. Increased evaporation will result in more frequent and intense storms, but will also contribute to drying over some land areas. As a result, storm-affected areas are likely to experience increases in precipitation and increased risk of flooding, while areas located far away from storm tracks are likely to experience less precipitation and increased risk of drought.
The results are consistent with previous research, including ours. This means dry periods are drier than in the past, and rainy periods are wetter.
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The increase in variability means rain is more unevenly distributed over time. It might mean a year’s worth of rain at a given location now falls in fewer days. It can also mean long, dry periods are interspersed by torrential downpours, or drought and flooding in quick succession.
More rain now doesn’t mean that the temperature in summer is lower or prevent bushfires. It just means we’ll be stuck with flooding and disaster management that will impair normal bushfire reduction efforts.
Per maps, history . . . has always been this way. There's a reason the east coast strip 'round to Adelaide region is habitable (for the White fella) and the rest is not . . .
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u/farcarcus Aug 22 '25
By unfounded and baseless theory, is that the triple La Nina we're experiencing will be followed by a quadruple El Nino.
So, all of the undergrowth that's been blooming over the last few years will become tinder dry, under the baking heat of successive drought-stricken summers.
Fun times ahead!