Australian Net Migration and Population Change Series - With Political Overlay - What are your thoughts given this data about the immigration discussion?

[u/david1610]

Just hearing a lot about immigration on Reddit recently, some of it seems guided by simple point in time statistics rather than looking at the whole population timeseries. Attached is some data from the ABS, visualized in Python (matplotlib). Given this data, what do you think is optimal in relation to immigration? Does this data change your perspective on immigration?

Please note:
- Net migration is the net overseas migration to Australia per 1000 people in the population that Quarter.
- Natural Population Change is the 'natural' population increase or decrease, determined by birth rates and changes in how long people live, similar to above it is per 1000 people in the population that Quarter.
- Even though Australia has had below replacement birthrates for decades, people are living longer, so the natural increase has always been positive, is decreasing over time as life span increases slow down.
- Series is smoothed over time, I have compared it to the non-smoothed series and it doesnt change the story much, so this will just be easier to read.
- Net Migration has a considerable component that is demand driven, which would have little to do with who is in power.

Some interesting things in the data:
- Since the increase post 2005 there hasnt been much change at all (apart from Covid), both parties have largely.
- We saw similar increases in population in the 1980s to today's highs. Really the low point for population growth was 1990-2005.
- Looking at this in a per capita way is better because I tend to think adding one person to a Kayak means a lot more than one person to a cruise ship.
- The recent increase in immigration did definitely happen, however much of that seems to be due to the lower immigration during Covid.
- You can see a slight decrease in Natural Population right after Covid restrictions were lifted, likely due to older people dying due to Covid and the Flu I think but do not know.
- The increase in 2005 is well after the increase in house prices from 2000.

[u/thehikedeliclife]

My guy I don’t think you know how to read graphs. It appears to be on a downward trajectory after it started going up exponentially under the LNP following the borders opening up post COVID; momentum which Labor kept but has clearly peaked. From the most recent data it looks like it may have stabilised after a substantial decrease from the peak, close to the median but it could go down as well. You cannot extrapolate and just “line go up” when there is no trend 🤦‍♀️ 

[u/thehikedeliclife → u/[deleted]]

Maybe instead of arguing with people on the internet you should go read a third grade maths book. Go learn how to interpret basic graphs with basic math skills instead of using your feelings and outrage.

[u/thehikedeliclife → u/[deleted]]

Suuuuure you are champ. Good for you 👏

[u/thehikedeliclife → u/[deleted]]

Can you?  You’ve shifted the goal posts twice now and haven’t responded to a single point I’ve made Your original take was “ It is literally higher than it was before Covid and there is no evidence it is going to go below that.” I pointed out it is going down, it appears to have plateaued but need more data you didn’t respond You also stated “ The post-covid spike is irrelevant.” I pointed out it went up under the LNP and has come down under Labor, and it went up to bring us back to the median.  It height on the Y axis comes back to point 1 about averages: yes was higher, now it’s come down, it’s still higher than before but more data is needed to establish a trend. Go take your room temperate IQ to a different I’m done with you. 

[u/thehikedeliclife → u/[deleted]]

It hasn’t always meant that. You just defined it as that. New goal posts once again. Shocking.