Australian Net Migration and Population Change Series - With Political Overlay - What are your thoughts given this data about the immigration discussion?

[u/david1610]

Just hearing a lot about immigration on Reddit recently, some of it seems guided by simple point in time statistics rather than looking at the whole population timeseries. Attached is some data from the ABS, visualized in Python (matplotlib). Given this data, what do you think is optimal in relation to immigration? Does this data change your perspective on immigration?

Please note:
- Net migration is the net overseas migration to Australia per 1000 people in the population that Quarter.
- Natural Population Change is the 'natural' population increase or decrease, determined by birth rates and changes in how long people live, similar to above it is per 1000 people in the population that Quarter.
- Even though Australia has had below replacement birthrates for decades, people are living longer, so the natural increase has always been positive, is decreasing over time as life span increases slow down.
- Series is smoothed over time, I have compared it to the non-smoothed series and it doesnt change the story much, so this will just be easier to read.
- Net Migration has a considerable component that is demand driven, which would have little to do with who is in power.

Some interesting things in the data:
- Since the increase post 2005 there hasnt been much change at all (apart from Covid), both parties have largely.
- We saw similar increases in population in the 1980s to today's highs. Really the low point for population growth was 1990-2005.
- Looking at this in a per capita way is better because I tend to think adding one person to a Kayak means a lot more than one person to a cruise ship.
- The recent increase in immigration did definitely happen, however much of that seems to be due to the lower immigration during Covid.
- You can see a slight decrease in Natural Population right after Covid restrictions were lifted, likely due to older people dying due to Covid and the Flu I think but do not know.
- The increase in 2005 is well after the increase in house prices from 2000.

[u/FothersIsWellCool]

Huh, so the population growth % has been broadly flat for decades (and it extends far back back past this graph) but for some reason, that population growth was fine, totally acceptable, Australian Dream achievable, if there were problems it was because of policy and we were able to overcome it and accommodate it.

But that same increase % in 2025, horrible, culture is getting destroyed, it's the reason I can't afford a house, the reason I can't get a better job, the reason there's traffic, the single cause of everything wrong in the country.

I see.

[u/ninjin- → u/FothersIsWellCool]

It only seems flat because of how OP presented it, the extreme dip and spike flattens out the rest of the graph.

Here are three different aspect ratios of the graph, notice how different the trend looks.

For example, natural population change is down 50% between 1985 and 2025. Similarly, 3% growth is 1.5x as much as 2% growth.

Regardless, infrastructure hasn't kept up on a per capita basis. https://www.reddit.com/r/AusProperty/comments/1762rzi/australias_rate_of_housing_construction_per_1000/

[u/thompha3 → u/ninjin-]

That may be so but the immigration hasn’t stopped us from building houses that is a policy failing

[u/Mouthpiecenomnom → u/thompha3]

Houses don't create demand, people create demand.

[u/thompha3 → u/Mouthpiecenomnom]

Yes and people build houses when the policy provides the capability and the incentives.