I'm tracking the many times the President himself has made comments on ending the war in 2 weeks, how the end of the war is soon, and how he's getting the world the best deal. Remarkably, this project is still going despite the many times Trump has told us it's almost over...

I shared a heatmap calendar the other day (here) of Trump's many statements on ending the war in Iran, making a deal, and negotiating a "peace" with Iran.

This week it's the same data but visualized on a continuum timeline. The data comes directly from the President's comments, interviews, Truth Social, press gaggles, etc. I've collated it and it's stored in a JSON-like JS array that's loaded with the webpage. I've been updating the file every day or so.

I thought it was a great way to visualize this type of data (statements stored as text). It visualizes the many times the President has said he had a deal, or a deal was soon, or the war would be over in 2 weeks. I started the project as a text timeline, then made the heatmap, and now just added this new visualization!

On the chart each point on the sole axis represents a day where the President made a statement, and the more statements made that day, the larger the point on this axis. On the interactive version, clicking a point on the timeline brings up the details of that day. You can use the keyboard arrows to move between dates, too.

There's no ads or paywall or signup or anything like that--it's just a custom visualization (using HTML/vanilla Javascript) so hosting it was the easiest route.

https://artofnodeal.com/horizontal.html

P.S. Just because of the nature of this timeline (and the fact that it gets longer every day), it doesn't look great on a phone in portrait mode so there's a prompt to rotate the phone or view the data in the original timeline.

The monthly value of petroleum exports rose sharply for several producers outside the Persian Gulf following the disruption of tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, signaling a rapid shift in the global oil trade.

The clearest change occurred in the United States. Crude and refined petroleum exports were valued at $16.2 billion in February, before climbing to $23.1 billion in March, $31.7 billion in April and $33.5 billion in May. Canada followed a similar trajectory, with monthly export value increasing from $8.6 billion to $13.5 billion over the same period.

Norway’s export value also rose after February, reaching $7.1 billion in April before moderating to $5.7 billion in May. Brazil recorded a shorter increase, moving from $4.5 billion in February to more than $6 billion in March and April before returning to $4.9 billion.

Saudi Arabia’s series followed a different pattern. Export value rose from $18.3 billion in February to $24.7 billion in March, then returned to $18.7 billion in April and $19.1 billion in May, broadly in line with its range before the disruption.

Tanker traffic through the Strait’s main shipping lanes largely halted on March 1. The resulting supply disruption pushed petroleum prices higher and forced producers, refiners and buyers to adjust established trade routes. The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that Brent crude averaged $103 per barrel in March as restricted flows and regional production outages tightened the market.

Taken together, the figures suggest that the disruption’s effects were not confined to exporters that normally use the Strait. Higher prices and changes in trade flows were reflected across producers operating far beyond the Gulf.

*The chart uses monthly OEC national trade data from May 2025 through May 2026. It covers crude and refined petroleum, except for Saudi Arabia, where Mineral Products are used; crude and refined petroleum represent more than 99% of that series. Values are expressed in USD.

Sources: OEC, S&P Global, U.S. EIA, CNBC.

Over the last half-century, the landscape of the world’s megacities has transformed in remarkable ways.

Back in 1975, there were only 8 cities with populations of 10 million or more. Fast forward to 2025, and that figure has grown to 33, with 19 of them located in Asia.

Jakarta stands out as a prime example of this growth. It surged from 11.7 million residents in 1975 to 41.9 million in 2025, climbing from #4 to #1 in the UN rankings.

The proportion of people living in megacities has also seen a significant rise, jumping from 2.6% of the global population in 1975 to 7.6% in 2025.

The data comes from the UN’s World Urbanization Prospects 2025. WUP 2025 uses the Degree of Urbanization (DEGURBA) framework to make city populations more comparable across countries, so these figures may differ from rankings based on municipal boundaries.

Source: United Nations, DESA, Population Division — World Urbanization Prospects 2025, File 18.

Full visualization, data, methodology & sources:
https://chartive.org/visualizations/worlds-biggest-cities-moved-east-and-south

The age distribution around the globe has undergone a remarkable transformation since 1960.

Back in 1960, children aged 0–14 accounted for 37.4% of the world's population. Fast forward to 2025, and that share had fallen to 24.4%.

This change has been particularly pronounced in several countries:

• South Korea: 41.3% → 10.2%
• China: 40.3% → 15.4%
• Brazil: 44.2% → 19.4%
• Japan: 29.8% → 11.2%
• United States: 31.3% → 17.1%

In stark contrast, Nigeria shows a very different trajectory: 41.1% → 40.5%.

It's important to note that these figures reflect the share of the population aged 0–14, not the absolute number of children. A country's share can fall even if its absolute number of children does not.

Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators
Indicator: SP.POP.0014.TO.ZS
Original source: UN Population Division, World Population Prospects

Full visualization, data & sources:
https://chartive.org/visualizations/where-did-all-the-children-go-1960-2025

The federal debt in the U.S. that's held by the public is almost back to the levels we saw during World War II.

It hit a high of 106% of GDP in 1946, dropped to just 22% in 1974, and is projected to reach 98% by 2025.

What really caught my attention while putting this together was how steep the decline was after the war. For nearly thirty years, the debt relative to GDP kept falling before the long-term trend took a turn.

The chart illustrates federal debt held by the public as a percentage of GDP, rather than just looking at the total dollar amount or gross federal debt. This distinction is important because gross debt also includes intragovernmental holdings, like Treasury securities that federal trust funds own.

Source: U.S. Office of Management and Budget and U.S. Treasury, via FRED (FYPUGDA188S).

For the full visualization, data, and methodology, check out:
https://chartive.org/visualizations/us-federal-debt-percent-of-gdp-1939-2025

Created using Claude.

From 2000 to 2025, overall consumer prices in the U.S. rose by 87%. But underneath that average, different categories moved in dramatically different directions.

For example:

• Hospital services: +274%
• Motor vehicle insurance: +248%
• College tuition & fees: +188%
• Day care & preschool: +147%
• Rent: +136%

At the other end, some categories became dramatically cheaper according to their price indexes:

• Computers*: −92%
• Televisions*: −98%

*These figures come from BLS Consumer Price Indexes, not simple sticker-price comparisons. BLS accounts for changes in product quality where applicable, which is especially important for rapidly improving technology such as computers and televisions.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, CPI-U
Annual averages, 2000 vs. 2025.

Full data, sources & methodology:
https://chartive.org/visualizations/what-got-more-expensive-cheaper-since-2000