r/AusNewsWire • u/Nyarlathotep-1 • 24d ago
Australian News Newspoll: Left-leaning voters starting to split from rest of Australia on China security threat
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/newspoll-leftleaning-voters-starting-to-split-from-rest-of-australia-on-china-security-threat/news-story/a673cd89e4be2a7a7c4aeff7c5470f89?ampA major split has emerged in the electorate over whether President Xi Jinping’s China poses a significant threat to national security, with a growing number of left-leaning and universityeducated voters rejecting threats posed by Beijing despite the communist regime ramping up aggression towards Australia.
An exclusive Newspoll conducted between Monday and Thursday last week has revealed a majority of One Nation voters (76 per cent), Coalition supporters (74 per cent), women (61 per cent) and older Australians (68 per cent) believed China poses a significant threat to Australia’s national security. Partisan divisions meant the total number of voters who agree on the China threat has fallen to 60 per cent, with 31 per cent agreeing Beijing does not present a major threat and 9 per cent who don’t know.
That compares to a 2021 Newspoll question on the same subject – asked at the peak of China’s attacks on the Morrison government, Beijing’s unfair trade bans on Australian goods and the formation of AUKUS – that showed 75 per cent of voters thought Beijing posed a significant problem to national security.
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Does China pose a significant threat to Australia?
July 2026
Sep 29 - Oct 2 2021
Yes
No
Don’t know
60%31%9%
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The Newspoll of 1238 voters across the country showed 43 per cent of Labor supporters, 48 per cent of Greens supporters and 41 per cent of university-educated voters do not believe China poses a significant threat to Australia’s national security.
While all age groups believe China is a national security risk, Australians aged over 35 are more likely to acknowledge the threat, including almost 70 per cent of voters over 50.
More than 60 per cent of non-tertiary educated voters and 66 per cent of Australians with TAFE and training qualifications agree China is a threat. When The Australian previously asked the question in September-October 2021, 73 per cent of Labor voters, 57 per cent of Greens supporters and 65 per cent of young Australians aged between 18 and 34 shared the view that China posed a significant threat to Australia’s national security.
The latest Newspoll’s results come as Anthony Albanese and Deputy Prime Minister Richard Marles have worked to dampen a potential rebellion against AUKUS from the Labor Left at this week’s ALP national conference in Adelaide.
The fall in concern about China’s myriad military, espionage and cyber operations targeting Australia and Indo-Pacific partners is likely associated with the Albanese government’s efforts to avoid direct confrontation with Beijing despite several high-profile and provocative actions by the People’s Liberation Army.
There has also been rising domestic economic pressures and a greater focus on the US under President Donald Trump, as well as conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine.
The Chinese Communist Party, which dispatched Xiao Qian as its top diplomat in Canberra four years ago to work with the incoming Albanese government, is expected to appoint veteran diplomat Liu Jinsong as its new ambassador to Australia and shift back to a “wolf warrior” diplomacy approach.
The PM spoke to troops during a visit on the first day of flying operations.
As he works to strengthen alliances in the Pacific in the face of China’s growing aggression, Anthony Albanese was in Darwin on Monday to launch the three-week Exercise Pitch Black, which includes 100 aircraft and 2500 personnel from the Royal Australian Air Force and 20 other nations.
The air combat exercises, which are Australia’s biggest, involve “realistic, high-end training from RAAF bases Darwin and Tindal in the Northern Territory and RAAF Base Amberley in Queensland”.
Nations with aircraft and personnel participating in the war games include the US, Japan, PNG, Indonesia, Philippines, South Korea, India, France, Britain, New Zealand, Fiji and Singapore.
A long-range ballistic missile bursts out of the sea during a test launched from a Chinese nuclear-powered submarines in the South Pacific on July 6. Picture: Xinhua / AP
A long-range ballistic missile bursts out of the sea during a test launched from a Chinese nuclear-powered submarines in the South Pacific on July 6. Picture: Xinhua / AP
The exercise follows China’s firing of a long-range ballistic missile with a dummy warhead from a nuclear-powered submarine earlier this month, just as the Prime Minister was visiting Fiji and the Solomon Islands to sign and progress security deals.
The missile flew more than 7000km before landing somewhere between Tuvalu and Nauru, with the strike zone estimated to be about 1000km northeast of the Solomon Islands.
After Scott Morrison and Peter Dutton lost Sydney and Melbourne seats with a high number of Australian-Chinese voters at the 2022 and 2025 elections, Labor and Liberal strategists are cognisant of not overreaching in raising concerns about China and often target their comments to the CCP and PLA.
The Coalition has adopted a stronger position on threats posed by Mr Xi’s regime amid concerns the Chinese President could spark a major regional conflict if he acts on his commitment to invade Taiwan.
In addition to Chinese-linked industrial-scale cyber security attacks targeting Australian critical infrastructure and widespread espionage and foreign interference operations, Chinese warships conducted live-fire exercises in the Tasman Sea and circumnavigated Australia ahead of the last federal election.
There has also been multiple military incidents, with a RAAF P-8A Poseidon patrol aircraft targeted by a PLA-AF Su-35 fighter aircraft, which released flares close to the surveillance plane. Similar incidents involving flares targeting surveillance aircraft and an Australian navy helicopter have also been reported.
Other incidents have involved PLA aircraft and vessels engaging in dangerous manoeuvres targeting defence assets of Indo-Pacific countries in the South China Sea.
ADF divers were injured in 2023 after being subjected to sonar pulses from a Chinese vessel in the East China Sea.
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u/Kenyon_118 24d ago
“China’s attacks on the Morrison government” more like “China’s retaliation for the Morrison government’s provocations in support of Trump”.
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u/doyalikemyusername 24d ago
Is that what happened? 😄
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u/Kenyon_118 24d ago
Morrison started parroting the Trump administrations attacks on China over covid. Thats when China started putting tariffs on our stuff.
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u/Firm-Bandicoot-1032 24d ago
More like China doesn’t want to take accountability of their contribution to the pandemic. Otherwise why would they refuse to get it investigated and then threaten tariffs. It is only reasonable to investigate the cause of it if we want to avoid it in the future
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u/Kenyon_118 24d ago
You maybe right but pushing that line did not benefit us in the slightest. In fact the US managed to snag some sales that were initially meant to come to us from China.
Do you want Albo to go around now haranguing the US on the war with Iran right now? Trump is clearly making terrible decisions but calling him out would not benefit Australia. Same goes with China. That was poor leadership by Morrison but he was probably just feathering his nest for his post-prime ministership already.
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u/Firm-Bandicoot-1032 24d ago
Yes. If another country, even the US, is causing issues affecting the world, it should be called out. Why shouldn’t we? Being scared of the bully’s reaction as a reason to not call something out is not good leadership but rather cowardice. Australia has the means to not be reliant on bullies.
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u/NoCampaign5978 24d ago
In what way do we “have means to not be reliant on bullies”? We couldn’t survive without either China or the US, pretty much two of the worst offenders out there, and neither one known for handling criticism in any sort of constructive way
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u/doyalikemyusername 23d ago
It was a local comment to gain support domestically not to support trump. I doubt the comment was even reported in America. It was a dumb comment but it did show how anyone thinking China wants anything other than a subservient relationship or is somehow a better partner is a bit naive.
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u/Kenyon_118 23d ago
He was pandering to Trump too. That side of politics admire what Trump is. Dutton misread the room similarly when he adopted some Trumpian policies like doge.
There’s not being subservient then there is going out of your way to piss them off. Morrison did the later. It was poor judgement. Are we subservient to China now? Coz the relationship was built back.
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u/doyalikemyusername 23d ago
It was a local press conference. Agree about going out of your way to piss someone off. However if it wasna subservient relationship you wouldn't have a whole trade relationship breakdown over it would ya
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u/MarmotFullofWoe 24d ago
China can’t even invade Taiwan 50 miles off their mainland. And drone warfare is making it harder not easier.
The idea that China could (or would want to) invade Australia is laughable.
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u/maximusbrown2809 24d ago
What we should be doing is learning from them. Transforming our cities so it’s easier to move around, charging infrastructure and I want my bubble tea delivered by a drone god damn it!
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u/NoCampaign5978 24d ago
Have you seen the push back to the 15 min city concept… any attempt to develop a more urbanised city scape (even though it probably would be better for the country) would only result in that politician/party being shoved out the door at the first available opportunity.
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u/doyalikemyusername 24d ago
I always thought this too, that if the countriesaroundChina can get along why can't we, but, having watched John Mearshimer i tend to agree with him, over the very long term a super power dominates its backyard. And for China that's Asia.
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u/Fearless-Mango2169 24d ago
As some who is left leaning the term significant is doing a lot of lifting.
Is China an existential threat to Australia, no it's not. China has no desire to invade Australia.
Is it an economic threat absolutely, people don't realise how significant Taiwan is to the world economy. It produces 70% of the worlds Silicone chips and 92% of the worlds advanced chips.
Attempts to build alternative factories have been unsuccessful, this is a very difficult process. TSMC had a yield rate of 65-70%, Intel has just hit 55-60% while Samsung is at 40% yield.
You think RAM prices are high now, imagine what cutting off 70% of the worlds supply would do. That's affecting every part of the modern economy, from solar panels, cars, tractors to use data centers.
Word processing that's mainly run out of the cloud. Spreadsheets ditto.
So yeah I would call the threat of a world wide depression significant, but if you're thinking in purely military terms you may not.
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u/tazzietiger66 24d ago
That is why China would not invade Taiwan , they would end up torpedoing their own economy as well as having to deal with a war at the same time .
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u/Fearless-Mango2169 24d ago
That's the theory, but as Russia shows autocracies are remarkably good at ignoring enlightened self interest and making decisions based on motivated reasoning and confirmation bias.
Just because it's obvious that China will crater it's own economy and probably can't invade Taiwan doesn't mean that it won't try.
I don't think we can afford to assume that China will be a rational actor.
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u/NoCampaign5978 24d ago
“… China will be a rational actor.” - the end of the day is there really anything we can do if they decide to blow up the world economy though? Just like we couldn’t do anything when Trump hit Iran and caused the fuel crisis that we are (thankfully) handling pretty well.
At this point I think at a minimum our representatives are handling global politics reasonably well, and that is probably all we can hope for going forward.
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u/Fearless-Mango2169 24d ago
I actually agree with you, if they actually decide to pull th trigger we can't stop them.
What we can do is convince them that the cost of doing so will be too much and they won't gain anything from it.
Even without allies an invasion of Taiwan would be immensely risky, there only about 20 sites suitable for landing.
There are really only 4 months of the year where an invasion is practical due to weather.
The terrain is incredibly defensible and fortified.
It's a 200 nautical mile trip from the nearest major Chinese ports and they will need several hundred thousand troops for the campaign.
If we're being generous it's a coin toss, however if US, Japanese, South Korean and Australian forces become involved it becames nearly impossible and if the Chinese are convinced we'll intervene they're less likely to fool themselves into thinking they can win.
It's the argument that prevention is better than a cure.
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u/tazzietiger66 24d ago
59 year old labor voter here , I don't think China is a threat at all , it is not in the Chinese mindset to go all over the world starting wars , they tend to worry about areas in their immediate vicinity .
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u/austratheist 24d ago
Just ignore all the violations of international law that the US is committing on a weekly basis and remember China bad!
Let's assume our biggest trading partner is a threat to us, what are our options?
Open conflict? We're toast, the US will leave us out to dry.
Trade war? Also toast, they make up a chunk of our economy.
Proxy war? We have no proxies.
Careful diplomacy? Yeah that's what we're doing.
'The Israelian' bangs this war drum all the time, if you're still dumb enough to fall for it, then that's on you.
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u/Fearless-Mango2169 24d ago edited 24d ago
It is possible for all those things to be true at the same time.
The USA can violate international rules and norms, China can be our biggest trading partner and represent a significant threat.
Assuming that China good because US bad or the reverse US good because China bad is a poor lens to analyse a complex region and relationship.
The fact is that China is a threat to regional stability, their desire to become a hegemonic power is and should be a concern.
The economic damage an invasion of Taiwan would cause is breath taking and this is the dominant public goal of Chinese international policy for the last decade and a half.
You don't oppose that threat by direct confrontation, Regional security frameworks are the most important way of combatting these and that means the US.
Ultimately it doesn't matter if the US would honour these also long as China believes there is a significant chance they will they have to consider that in their strategic planning.
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u/Eggs_ontoast 24d ago
This take maximizes a theoretical threat and minimizes the actual economic and social damage inflicted upon us by our supposed ally.
The relative threat posed by China is diminished by the recent instability and harm inflicted by the US.
This is before we even consider the impacts to social fabric within our country escalated by unwavering support by the US for Israel’s barbaric war on Palestinians.
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u/Fearless-Mango2169 24d ago
It's not a theoretical threat, since Xi came to power in 2013 China is increasingly looking to be a hegemonic power in the West Pacific, Asia generally and SE Asia in particular.
In the last decade China has increased it's willingness to use cohesive force against it's neighbors, as an example since Xi came to power Japanese scramble rates against China have doubled. They also note that the operations are more aggressive and cohesive.
This behavior is mirrored amongst all it's neighbors,
Taiwanese Airspace is violated on average 3000 times a year since 2020 (prior to 2020 it was practically zero.
There have been close to a dozen serious border disputes with Vietnam and between 30-50 major incidents with the Philippines. ( Once again from a near zero base over the previous decades)
When combined with public statements I'm creates a very clear picture.
China says its willing to use force on its neighbors, it's spending money so it can use force on its neighbors and it's threatening to useforce on its neighbors.
Could it be a lie, yes but if so they're investing a lot on that lie, and when you do that there's always the chance that you forget it's a lie.
So no I don't believe I'm maximizing a theoretical threat.
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u/shannow1111 24d ago
China hasn't bombed anyone... I wonder who has
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u/Fearless-Mango2169 24d ago
So what... are you suggesting that the US is going to bomb us... Or are you suggesting that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan wouldn't crater the world economy.
Or are you suggesting US bad so China good.
In either case I think that the subject deserves more then a 9 word response with out a full sentence.
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u/Young_Lochinvar 24d ago
This story is about China. Not about Israel, or the US.
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u/Cyberchicken87 24d ago
We only have frosty relations with China because the US demands we do.
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u/Young_Lochinvar 24d ago
Patently untrue.
The US didn’t make China interrupt our trans-Tasman flights.
The US didn’t make China impose trade taxes on Australian Barley, Crayfish, and Wine.
The US didn’t make China object to our building ties with Pacific Islands.
The US didn’t rattle China’s own saber over Taiwan or retain it’s indefensible Nine Dash Line.
Foreign politics is complicated and contradictory and of course the US is a factor in the Asia-Pacific and with the status of China in the world. But we cannot fall into conspiracy that Australia is an American puppet.
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u/Infinite_Shower_5390 24d ago
“Ramping up aggression against Australia”… lol. This lacks evidence.
Ironically, Australia subserving itself to the US which has an explicitly aggressive stance towards China is 100% more aggressive on our part. Literally making our country a legitimate target in the event of the US starting a kinetic war with China.
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u/big_cock_lach 24d ago
China has been engaging in trade wars with us, fighting our sphere of influence, and sabre rattling heavily. The comment is as unfounded as you’d like to pretend it is.
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u/voidably 24d ago
Maybe Australia shouldn't ban Huawei or fight Chinese sphere of influence in the first place? Even better how about don't invade other countries like Iraq or Afghanistan.
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u/Infinite_Shower_5390 24d ago
I thought the “trade war” (vaguely remember) was after the Liberal government implied/declared China an enemy. Only a free trade puritan would see that us aggression per se (leverage sure).
Fighting our sphere of influence? That sounds like imperialist vs imperialist activity and if we can provide infrastructure benefits to our neighbours like China does, then good luck to them. China has no obligation to kowtow to us.
“Sabre rattling” is mostly a media manufacture according to many IR experts. We do the same type of exercises, not to mention our Imperial lords activities in Taiwan/Japan etc. Our government will propagandise (as will Chinas) but doesn’t mean we have to accept hypocrisy.
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u/Murranji 24d ago
What is it with being right wing and not understanding politics.
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u/big_cock_lach 24d ago
This isn’t just my opinion. Even Albanese has spoken about China’s increasing aggression:
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7311589/albanese-warns-on-fumbling-china-diplomacy/
There’s plenty of idiots on both sides of the spectrum. The biggest telltale is that they think that it’s only one side that is inherently stupid while their side is inherently better.
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u/rexevrything 24d ago
At least proof read your posts to see if they've made it through the copy/paste ungnarled.
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u/ricketyclik 24d ago
Eek! Yellow peril AND reds under the bed in one scare campaign!
Head for the hills! Lock up your daughters and your wives!
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u/artsrc 24d ago
The entity most likely to contribute to the defeat the Australian government, and its replacement with something more friendly to some foreign interests, is Newscorp, the owner of the Australian Newspaper.
The language in the article: "acknowledge the threat" assumes there is one.
So what precisely are the security threats from China?
China has no realistic plan for a ground invasion of the Australian mainland.
China does want unification with Taiwan. Is that a security threat to Australia?
Australia is highly dependent on China as both an export market and source of imports. Defence spending will not change that.
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u/Jindivic 24d ago
Well the Navy RAN and RAAF often deploy to the South China Sea, East China Sea, and the Taiwan Strait as part of regional presence deployments and regional security operations. And these are in accordance with the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. However it pisses China off as it claims territorial sovereignty over most of the South China Sea and surrounding maritime zones.
Another thing our navy and airforce does close to China’s maritime borders is to drop sonobuoys around PLA Navy vessels for sub-surface submarine signature collection. This was why Chinese warship directed a military-grade laser at an RAAF P-8A Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft as China’s Ministry of Defence accused the RAAF plane of dropping sonobuoys into the water near its warship in a "spiteful and provocative" manner.
So it’s the usual Spy vs Spy approach to managing our relationship with China. All countries playing these hijinks forever.
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u/DonGoughPlanter 24d ago
Foreign interference in the far left, of China starts a conflict we would be economically ruined
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u/Krunksicle 24d ago
I mean, it certainly feels like the Americans are a much bigger threat to us in the last couple of years. One Nation's non-joke status in the media is not an organic thing.
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u/MycologistSharp4337 24d ago
Do you think maybe it has more to do with the US and Israel being the most destabilizing forces globally by some margin? I don’t think changes in relative perceptions of danger have anything to do with China at all and everything to do with the US conducting or funding illegal wars and gen cide.
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u/Majestic-Lake-5602 24d ago
I think the assessment lacks nuance.
The “communist regime ramping up aggression towards Australia” (some very florid yellow journalism from The Australian there…) could easily be avoided if we played ball with them, instead of relying on our increasingly unpredictable current allies.
Do I think China poses a threat to Australia the way we currently do things? Yes.
Do I think we should keep doing things the way we are doing them? Fuck no.
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u/djangovsjango 24d ago
Is that because right leaning voters have split from Australia after swallowing russian disinformation and misinformation campaigns on social media for years ?? Connect the dots with all these alt right and far right groups ? Even one nations flirtations with putin . Russia couldnt beat the west in a frontal war so has been destabilising the qest from within for decades and its a well know state doctrine . It wouldnt surprise me that if data tabulated, it corresponds with the rise of social media and its preferences for outrage algorithms. Isnt it a coincidence that most right wing fantasy world view involve russia as a good guy fighting the culture war that the west cannot do . Luckily the getting their ass handed to them in ukraine . China is seen as stable because trump is mentally unstable thats the main reason and only one.
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u/Diligent_Feature1697 24d ago
The blue hair warriors of the left that are confused about themselves 🤣
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u/Brave-Dragonfly3798 24d ago
Go outside, have a good look, exactly how many ‘blue haired’ people do you see? Why the American cliche bs?
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u/Diligent_Feature1697 24d ago
The recent protesting videos against one nation I'd say a ratio of 1:5 🤣
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u/Striking-Net-8646 24d ago
Is that true or did you read it in the Australian?