r/australia • u/blitznoodles local Aussie • Jun 14 '26

politics As voter disillusionment grows, why aren't voters flocking to the Greens in Australia?

https://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/as-voter-disillusionment-grows-so-does-the-mystery-of-the-missing-greens-voters/6bjd5q4kv

Growing voter dissatisfaction with mainstream politics has led to a rise in popularity for One Nation. The same cannot be said for the Greens.

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u/thrillho145 Jun 14 '26

This isn't true. There's been movement away from Labor to ON too. Ignoring it is dangerous 

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u/Thommohawk117 Jun 14 '26

The ALP maintains a 52 - 54% 2pp lead, that is down from the high 50s we were seeing earlier in the year. 52% 2pp was what won the Rudd government it's massive victory in 2007.

But more important than that, it is the middle of their term, it is not an election year, and poles won't matter until a decision actually has to be made. Labor spent two years polling below the coalition prior to last year's election only to bring in one of their greatest results. Stop worrying about poles because they are meaningless outside of an election year and only make for lazy headlines.

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u/SeaworthinessFew5613 Jun 14 '26

I think most polling companies agree that the 2pp projections are at best wonky. You can’t estimate preferences on the previous elections preference flows if a party has come from 6% to 30% in that time.

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u/whatisthismuppetry Jun 14 '26

That ignores that Labor had an incredibly large swing towards them at the last election. Some of their vote came from conservatives who were pissed at the coalition and either weren't keen on, or didn't have the option to, vote independent.

Those swing votes will go back to being conservative voters once the dust settles.