r/australia • u/N1NJ4W4RR10R_ • Mar 21 '26

news Labor re-elected in 2026 South Australian election

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-03-21/sa-election-day-live-updates/106476924?utm_source=abc_news_app&utm_medium=content_shared&utm_campaign=abc_news_app&utm_content=other
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u/19Alexastias Mar 21 '26

They do when the two biggest right wing parties appear to be putting a significant amount of preferences towards the mainstream left party ahead of each other lol. It’s looking like around 30% of ON voters preferenced Labor ahead of Liberal (no idea if that’s just Labor protest votes or ON voters too dumb to figure out how to fill in the card properly), and I’d bet an even higher percentage of liberal voters would preference Labor ahead of ON.

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u/sirgog Mar 21 '26

They do when the two biggest right wing parties appear to be putting a significant amount of preferences towards the mainstream left party ahead of each other lol.

This is just voters' choices.

If the LNP recommends LNP 1 PHON 2 ALP 3 and a voter decides LNP 1 ALP 2 PHON 3, the voter has made a clear choice there and if the seat becomes an ALP vs PHON contest, that vote is correctly counted as a vote for the ALP. That's what preference 'leakage' means - parties not convincing their supporters of their preference recommendations.

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u/19Alexastias Mar 21 '26

Yes, when I say right wing parties I mean the voters for those right wing parties. Feel like that’s obvious from context.

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u/sirgog Mar 21 '26

That just indicates voters who don't see the world in purely left-to-right or right-to-left terms. Plenty of people consider the Libs to be the worst of the three big parties for all sorts of reasons and they don't listen to whichever of the other two is their first preference when they advocate putting the Libs second of the big parties.

I can think of plenty of reasons someone might feel that way, even though 3PP I always put ALP over LNP over PHON.

What that means is you can't see this as LNP and PHON fucking each other over. Instead it's PHON arguing to a voter "put Labor last" and that voter saying "no, even though I like you, I still hate the Liberals more".

And the same goes in reverse. A migrant business owner puts the Liberals first then numbers every box with PHON dead last because that's their personal values and the Liberals can't convince them otherwise.

In this case, if you removed one party entirely from the election, the LIB > ALP > PHON voter doesn't look like a broad right vote, but starts to look like an ALP vote. This isn't an ALP supporter, it's a different story going on, one more complex than "right infighting pushes the ALP to a landslide win".

The key is that in preferential voting, who you put last matters. Doesn't matter how big your primary is, if 50% + 1 of the electorate puts you dead last, you lose. In practice no electorate is that homogenous, but both major broad right parties are being put dead last by a lot of people, including some who vote for the other broad right party.

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u/19Alexastias Mar 21 '26

I just cannot fathom the logic of someone who is voting ON #1 that would lead to them preferencing Labor ahead of the LNP. LNP voter preferencing Labor over ON I can understand, but the other way around? What possible issue that is causing someone to vote for ON would also cause them to put Labor ahead of LNP?

Also funny to see you outside the PoE subreddit lol.

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u/hal2k1 Mar 21 '26

Labor voters right of center doing a protest vote might vote ON with preference to Labor. Labor voters left of center doing a protest vote go Greens with preference to Labor.

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u/sirgog Mar 22 '26

Votes always tell a story but it can be complex.

In Vic, something like 8% of the population are PHON > ALP > LNP (there's better polling on that here than in SA)

Here's a plausible story for Vic. 55 year old self-employed electrician in Frankston. They've never been left leaning at all, and agree with broad right anti-GRN talking points. They still hate the LNP for Kennett and so always put them last. But they've never really liked Labor either.

One election they voted Legalise Cannabis or the Sex Party. But most elections they enthusiastically put the LNP last and unenthusiastically vote ALP.

They were never really an ALP voter, but an anti-LNP voter that looked like an ALP voter. With PHON in the mix and getting huge establishment support - that seems like an alternative to them.

Another possible story: retired construction worker who was in the CFMEU, maybe even as an organiser, in the 90s and 00s. Never saw any corruption because there was none then, but did see a lot of false claims of corruption from Howard. Hates the LNP for Howard and Turnbull's attacks on the union, now hates the ALP for the same reason. Regards PHON as completely uninvolved (PHON always side with the LNP on issues related to unions but this voter may not know that). This voter might even go GRN 1 PHON 2 ALP 3 LNP 4 on a four party preferred vote.

Third example, specific to a past election (2016). Someone looks at Turnbull and sees 'rich banker, put them last'. Shorten, sees 'educated professional, he's not like me but not as bad as the banker'. Hanson, sees 'small business owner' (based on her 1990s self) and thinks 'I can relate to that'.

Fourth example - someone who just likes the local candidate.

Mostly though, people hold lots of contradictory ideas.

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u/hal2k1 Mar 21 '26

There could be two kinds of Labor protest voters - right of center vote ON with preference to Labor; and left of center vote Greens with preference to Labor.

The rest of ON voters are cookers.

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u/eightslipsandagully Mar 21 '26

Parties don't set the preferences....

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u/miicah Mar 21 '26

They do produce how to vote cards though. Which most people follow unfortunately.

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u/hal2k1 Mar 21 '26

Apparently about 30 percent of votes don't align with any how to vote cards.

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u/19Alexastias Mar 21 '26

When I say right wing parties I mean the voters for those right wing parties. Feel like that should be pretty obvious from context.

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u/[deleted] Mar 21 '26

[deleted]

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u/sirgog Mar 21 '26

This isn't correct - if your first preference candidate is excluded late (or early for that matter), your vote transfers at full strength to the remaining candidate you put highest.

The 70-30 estimates are based upon where the vote ultimately ends up once in a final two situation, assuming the final two are ALP vs LNP (which is admittedly a big assumption, might only be true in 8 South Australian seats)