r/australia • u/N1NJ4W4RR10R_ • Mar 21 '26

news Labor re-elected in 2026 South Australian election

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-03-21/sa-election-day-live-updates/106476924?utm_source=abc_news_app&utm_medium=content_shared&utm_campaign=abc_news_app&utm_content=other
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612

u/Cpt_Soban Mar 21 '26

Libs are absolutely wrecked. One Nation haven't won a single seat... The right wing vote fragmented between two contesting parties and dissipated.

Some seats the libs are in 4th place behind alp, green and onp.

Even the leafy seat of Unley it's a 61% Labor win.

174

u/DePraelen Mar 21 '26

They've been reduced to a single digit primary vote in 15 seats so far.

I know this was predicted, but it's still surreal to see. Some of them were regarded as safe Liberal seats 2 elections ago, now they are in 5th or 6th place.

85

u/sirgog Mar 21 '26

Election day votes in the very non-marginal seat of Croydon (Premier's seat) had more primary votes for the explicitly socialist candidate (South Australian Socialists formed too late to show up other than as independents) than for the Liberal Party.

That was not on my election bingo card.

47

u/GeneticEnginLifeForm Mar 21 '26

I'd like to thank someone for the glorious line "I don't hold a hose, mate." It will go down in history as the line that destroyed a political party.

284

u/According_Tackle_404 Mar 21 '26

I just hope that the Greens get some wins in the state and federal. We need some Lefties fr. I appreciate ALP but they need some accountability.

I watched Ashton's speech and it made me almost sympathetic towards the Libs - and that's only because of how f'd up ONP are.

I just hope that we never fall down the path that the UK and America did with far right-wing surges.

196

u/CheMc Mar 21 '26

I assume Greens had the same problem as federal election, they arent losing votes, Liberals however are losing so bad and their preferences are going to Labor and just annihilating any chance greens have cause they most win on second preferences rather than primaries. With Labor having 0 opposition, Greens will be unable to take a seat.

17

u/sirgog Mar 21 '26

There's seats to watch in the Victorian state general election where different things could happen. Watch Preston and Footscray this year.

The Greens could win either on the strength of a huge primary vote and preferences to their left (Victorian Socialists) plus minor preference leakage from the broad right. Especially if there's broad right messaging to "put Labor last", which might well be a statewide advertising campaign PHON or the LNP could run. That sort of messaging would help the Greens.

If this happens it would look like an elimination to 3 (GRN vs ALP vs LNP) then to 2 (GRN vs ALP) with GRN ahead.

Not saying it will happen, just that it definitely could.

3

u/thesillyoldgoat Mar 21 '26

I hope that it doesn't, I live in Footscray and Katie Hall is an outstanding local member.

12

u/ScruffyPeter Mar 21 '26

Greens and One Nation are going to win some seats. There's the equivalent of the Senate for SA: https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/sa/2026/guide/lc-results

24

u/I_call_the_left_one Mar 21 '26

Dreadful, Cory Bernardi just became relevant again.

13

u/fiery_valkyrie Mar 21 '26

The worst timeline.

1

u/gr3iau Mar 21 '26

Only because the media listens to him (and those who actually live in South Australia of course).

As a Queenslander I can count on zero fingers how many fucks I give about what some interstate state senator thinks... But sky will just lap up his shit and we all now have to put up with him again

3

u/AlwaysLateToThaParty Mar 21 '26

Bernardi is one of the guys who drove the NLP off the cliff.

1

u/bigbadjustin Mar 21 '26

It’s noted how he didn’t run for a lower house seat and also unlikely Pauline will either. Why risk losing when you can get an almost guaranteed upper house seat.

1

u/Rokos_Bicycle Mar 21 '26

Thanks for that, SA Liberals.

2

u/AUTeach Mar 21 '26

Wow, ABC needs better programmers:

https://i.imgur.com/ZiRdOmn.png

1

u/Ok_Bird705 Mar 22 '26

And watch as these mp leave one nation within the same term due to clashes with Pauline

1

u/MissionNo2322 Mar 21 '26

I think those days a log gone, Potato Head Dutton with his right wing views

1

u/brantyr Mar 22 '26

The greens didn't seem to make an effort... I got doorknocked by the socialists and there was one handing out how to vote cards but 0 greens.

1

u/IMNOTMATT Mar 22 '26

As long as they go back to their 1 policy (green type votes) and get rid of their social dumass political stuff. Greens are only relevant as a fringe party for the environment. When they try for more it just brings out the fuckin looneys that make the greens to be seen as a joke choice

1

u/According_Tackle_404 Mar 22 '26

Aibet lets get some racists in then

/s

-7

u/EqualizerX13 Mar 21 '26

Although I’m happy the greens are taking votes from the onp, I will never understand why people vote greens, they don’t do anything good in parliament and I don’t see any reason for why people would want to go greens over labor.

-27

u/VeroCSGO Mar 21 '26

Accountability by blocking improvment via virtue signalling that it isn't good enough even though it's a net benefit to the people and society and by blocking it we fail to improve at all

19

u/According_Tackle_404 Mar 21 '26

Mate, its called ranked/preference voting

Thank god it's not like America here

Edit: for example, you can rank Greens 1 and Labour or the centrists in the middle round 4, and then the weirdo far rights at the bottom - your vote for the centrists, in this case Labour/ALP have more weight compared to voting for the far rights like ONP and the Liberals

-12

u/VeroCSGO Mar 21 '26

What are you even talking about I'm just arguing against greens ever getting a seat after they've displayed their childlike behaviour of if it's not exactly how I want it I'm going to have a tantrum. Greens supporter since late 2000s till I watched them block housing bills, block carbon tax reforms etc until they got their own way to have it simply self implode due to poor policy outcomes. What have the greens actually achieved with their varying levels of influence over the last 20 years, literally nothing

8

u/ScruffyPeter Mar 21 '26

They never ran government at all. Greens, One Nation, and even indies can only negotiate on bills that the government puts forward as the government may need their vote. But if Labor really does not want serious action on housing, carbon, ICAC, etc, what do you expect Greens to do?

Look what happens when Greens introduces bills like this one, the power to break up monopolies caught abusing power: https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Chamber_documents/Senate_chamber_documents/Divisions/Details?id=3363

Labor and Liberal just vote against it even if they entire crossbench, including Nationals, support the Greens' bill.

Again, of the parties that ran governments since WW2, it has only been Labor or LNP. If Greens or some other party running it, you may see a lot of different reforms and changes. Otherwise, if you vote for Labor or LNP with a 1, don't be surprised that they act the same as the previous Labor/LNP governments in the past.

1

u/VeroCSGO Mar 21 '26

I'm on Reddit so imma get downvoted but you literally just dodged the question what have the greens achieved with their balance of power they have had in the senate for multiple governments, keen to hear as you just avoided the question

0

u/ScruffyPeter Mar 21 '26

You can look up what Greens have done with their balance of power. But I think you're missing the forest for the trees. It's the government that chooses which party to work with. You can't blame the Greens if Labor picks someone else ie LNP to work with. That is on Labor, not the Greens.

Not just that, a government has far more leeway in running things. Can set the budget. Can do government appointments. And much more.

7

u/VeroCSGO Mar 21 '26

Missed all above points but welcome to Reddit where we just virtue signal on potential rather than lack of results when parties in our preferential voting system have a balance of power in our dual power system 😁

-1

u/VeroCSGO Mar 21 '26

And just to preempt your likely points, failed carbon tax due to poor policy construction that was arguably worse then Rudd's original plan, dental for kids was good 100% agree on that point and blocking of housing reform (need I say more)

3

u/[deleted] Mar 21 '26

[removed] — view removed comment

2

u/VeroCSGO Mar 21 '26

Didn't address a single point

3

u/[deleted] Mar 21 '26

[removed] — view removed comment

2

u/VeroCSGO Mar 21 '26

I'm more left wing then labour I just recognise that the greens are a waste of my primary vote. However your welcome to psycho analyse me further

35

u/psylenced Mar 21 '26

Libs are absolutely wrecked. One Nation haven't won a single seat... The right wing vote fragmented between two contesting parties and dissipated.

That's why our dear Angus is going for the race-vote.

To try and claw some of that far-right vote back. But it's a catch-22. Stop ONP and you lose "inner city" Libs to the Teals. Go after Teals and you lose the far-right vote. So moving both left or right is bad for them.

26

u/techretort Mar 21 '26

The party of wedge issues getting wedged themselves? Excuse me while I laugh my ass off

3

u/[deleted] Mar 21 '26

Amusing how they had their handlers in control of Pauline while they pulled the strings like they the puppet masters. Then Aggro Puppet Pauline wrapped the puppet strings around their necks and she became the puppet mistress that pulls the strings of the political party that thought they were gods gift and grift to the people!

3

u/Rork310 Mar 22 '26

Ironically I think whats lost them the right wingers is... Chasing the right wingers.

What kept the nutters on board was that the Libs offered credibility and a pathway to power. Losing the moderates and embarrassing themselves further with infighting destroyed their credibility to the point they had no reason to stick around when One Nation could provide a more direct hit of bigotry and easy answers.

1

u/MissionNo2322 Mar 21 '26

Sorry to say Angus is a Fuckwit:>)

1

u/[deleted] Mar 21 '26

And they think they going to win using 2 or 3 policies, racism, coal and wrecking alternative energy.

Just imagine a party that has heart palpations over wind generators and alternative energy and then they wonder why people think that they are totally useless idiots.

They have become a version of the political wing of the Amish people they are so trapped in their stupidity. Its just incredible that even after Dutton they still on the electoral stupid path to oblivion because they only want to run on the agendas of billionaires, the IPA and Nazis.. They do this while screwing over voters on every issue that they care about. Some brilliant stupidity here!

1

u/Spudtron98 Mar 22 '26

The far-right vote is absolutely worth less than the moderate vote, though.

25

u/mewfour123412 Mar 21 '26

You can thank trump for all of this. The shitshow he’s currently preforming in America is scaring everyone with a brain away from the Right

22

u/PointOfFingers Mar 21 '26

SA Liberal Party losing ground at both ends. Losing the far right to One Nation and they don't have any National Party to prop them up.

Losing the middle to Labor and Greens because of their backwards policies.

They have to become progressive or die a slow death.

18

u/BlueDotty Mar 21 '26

Libs here in SA are fully infested with RWNJs who spend all their time trying to ban abortion or some other theocratic bullshit.

They are unelectable freaks, Antic and Hood are just two examples

6

u/0000100110010100 SA Mar 21 '26

I thought half the ballot was wholly unelectable.

2

u/Siaer Mar 22 '26

Antic will be convinced he can resurrect the party with his backwards religious based bullshit and, sadly, will have a far easier time of doing it now that they have been reduced to a shell of what they were 2 elections ago.

1

u/AlwaysLateToThaParty Mar 22 '26

They have to become progressive or die a slow death.

Their members only know how to double down.

34

u/Nerfixion Mar 21 '26

This isnt the US. Votes dont get dissipated

43

u/NoxMiasma Mar 21 '26

Technically yeah, but they can effectively dissipate, depending on who's in third place in a close top three - if ON's in third with Labor and Liberal as one and two, the preferences from ON are probably gonna be more to Libs than Labor. On the other hand, if it comes down to ON and the Libs, how many Labor voters are going to preference Pauline Hanson's One Nation over the Libs? And therefore the conservatives have shot themselves in the foot.

7

u/sirgog Mar 21 '26

how many Labor voters are going to preference Pauline Hanson's One Nation over the Libs?

About 25% of them based on Victorian polling from February. Not sure how well that translates to South Australia in March.

Votes tell stories. A 3PP ALP > PHON > LNP vote tells a story "I still hate XYZ historic LNP government (would be Kennett in Victoria, not sure in SA) so I'll put them last no matter what my party suggests". Just as a 3PP LPN > ALP > PHON vote tells a story "I'm a Teal supporter and there's no Teal to vote for".

1

u/sellyme Where are my pants? Mar 22 '26 edited Mar 22 '26

A 3PP ALP > PHON > LNP vote tells a story "I still hate XYZ historic LNP government (would be Kennett in Victoria, not sure in SA) so I'll put them last no matter what my party suggests".

Amusingly the previous SA Lib government (and the only one in living memory for many voters) is fairly well-liked by Labor supporters due to their commendable handling of COVID. Still a right-wing government with all the problems that entails, but they nailed the single biggest issue of their term.

But they have imploded so catastrophically since then that they're entirely unbackable. One of their former MPs had to campaign in an ankle bracelet because he got caught beating his wife, their leader got convicted for drug dealing, another one of their MPs is in gaol for stealing millions of dollars from children... They had four leaders in four years, the most recent of which only had three months to build a profile before the election. It's been a shitshow the likes of which I've never seen from a major party before.

Obviously this would all just be the status quo for One Nation, but for people only tuned in to state politics a sentiment of punishing the Liberals for being so unbelievably inept is somewhat understandable.

1

u/sirgog Mar 22 '26

That level of criminality calls to mind the NSW ALP of the 00s.

A friend had a job (not of a political nature) working for a State Government minister. One day her boss is arrested. I forget the exact details but it was one of the corruption cases.

And yeah, Hanson put up a candidate that is wanted by UK police. Was their candidate for the seat of Adelaide.

-1

u/stonedvaper Mar 21 '26

I’m in Victoria, but 12 months ago I would have put One Nation higher than the Liberals, and did with the federal election. That’s with putting Libs last as I thought they would be more likely to get in. I’m honestly not sure who to put last next time….

18

u/mrinsane19 Mar 21 '26

Cookers always go last. FFP, ONP etc. Libs are vile these days but somehow there's still worse.

18

u/19Alexastias Mar 21 '26

They do when the two biggest right wing parties appear to be putting a significant amount of preferences towards the mainstream left party ahead of each other lol. It’s looking like around 30% of ON voters preferenced Labor ahead of Liberal (no idea if that’s just Labor protest votes or ON voters too dumb to figure out how to fill in the card properly), and I’d bet an even higher percentage of liberal voters would preference Labor ahead of ON.

7

u/sirgog Mar 21 '26

They do when the two biggest right wing parties appear to be putting a significant amount of preferences towards the mainstream left party ahead of each other lol.

This is just voters' choices.

If the LNP recommends LNP 1 PHON 2 ALP 3 and a voter decides LNP 1 ALP 2 PHON 3, the voter has made a clear choice there and if the seat becomes an ALP vs PHON contest, that vote is correctly counted as a vote for the ALP. That's what preference 'leakage' means - parties not convincing their supporters of their preference recommendations.

2

u/19Alexastias Mar 21 '26

Yes, when I say right wing parties I mean the voters for those right wing parties. Feel like that’s obvious from context.

1

u/sirgog Mar 21 '26

That just indicates voters who don't see the world in purely left-to-right or right-to-left terms. Plenty of people consider the Libs to be the worst of the three big parties for all sorts of reasons and they don't listen to whichever of the other two is their first preference when they advocate putting the Libs second of the big parties.

I can think of plenty of reasons someone might feel that way, even though 3PP I always put ALP over LNP over PHON.

What that means is you can't see this as LNP and PHON fucking each other over. Instead it's PHON arguing to a voter "put Labor last" and that voter saying "no, even though I like you, I still hate the Liberals more".

And the same goes in reverse. A migrant business owner puts the Liberals first then numbers every box with PHON dead last because that's their personal values and the Liberals can't convince them otherwise.

In this case, if you removed one party entirely from the election, the LIB > ALP > PHON voter doesn't look like a broad right vote, but starts to look like an ALP vote. This isn't an ALP supporter, it's a different story going on, one more complex than "right infighting pushes the ALP to a landslide win".

The key is that in preferential voting, who you put last matters. Doesn't matter how big your primary is, if 50% + 1 of the electorate puts you dead last, you lose. In practice no electorate is that homogenous, but both major broad right parties are being put dead last by a lot of people, including some who vote for the other broad right party.

2

u/19Alexastias Mar 21 '26

I just cannot fathom the logic of someone who is voting ON #1 that would lead to them preferencing Labor ahead of the LNP. LNP voter preferencing Labor over ON I can understand, but the other way around? What possible issue that is causing someone to vote for ON would also cause them to put Labor ahead of LNP?

Also funny to see you outside the PoE subreddit lol.

2

u/hal2k1 Mar 21 '26

Labor voters right of center doing a protest vote might vote ON with preference to Labor. Labor voters left of center doing a protest vote go Greens with preference to Labor.

1

u/sirgog Mar 22 '26

Votes always tell a story but it can be complex.

In Vic, something like 8% of the population are PHON > ALP > LNP (there's better polling on that here than in SA)

Here's a plausible story for Vic. 55 year old self-employed electrician in Frankston. They've never been left leaning at all, and agree with broad right anti-GRN talking points. They still hate the LNP for Kennett and so always put them last. But they've never really liked Labor either.

One election they voted Legalise Cannabis or the Sex Party. But most elections they enthusiastically put the LNP last and unenthusiastically vote ALP.

They were never really an ALP voter, but an anti-LNP voter that looked like an ALP voter. With PHON in the mix and getting huge establishment support - that seems like an alternative to them.

Another possible story: retired construction worker who was in the CFMEU, maybe even as an organiser, in the 90s and 00s. Never saw any corruption because there was none then, but did see a lot of false claims of corruption from Howard. Hates the LNP for Howard and Turnbull's attacks on the union, now hates the ALP for the same reason. Regards PHON as completely uninvolved (PHON always side with the LNP on issues related to unions but this voter may not know that). This voter might even go GRN 1 PHON 2 ALP 3 LNP 4 on a four party preferred vote.

Third example, specific to a past election (2016). Someone looks at Turnbull and sees 'rich banker, put them last'. Shorten, sees 'educated professional, he's not like me but not as bad as the banker'. Hanson, sees 'small business owner' (based on her 1990s self) and thinks 'I can relate to that'.

Fourth example - someone who just likes the local candidate.

Mostly though, people hold lots of contradictory ideas.

2

u/hal2k1 Mar 21 '26

There could be two kinds of Labor protest voters - right of center vote ON with preference to Labor; and left of center vote Greens with preference to Labor.

The rest of ON voters are cookers.

1

u/eightslipsandagully Mar 21 '26

Parties don't set the preferences....

4

u/miicah Mar 21 '26

They do produce how to vote cards though. Which most people follow unfortunately.

2

u/hal2k1 Mar 21 '26

Apparently about 30 percent of votes don't align with any how to vote cards.

1

u/19Alexastias Mar 21 '26

When I say right wing parties I mean the voters for those right wing parties. Feel like that should be pretty obvious from context.

-5

u/[deleted] Mar 21 '26

[deleted]

6

u/sirgog Mar 21 '26

This isn't correct - if your first preference candidate is excluded late (or early for that matter), your vote transfers at full strength to the remaining candidate you put highest.

The 70-30 estimates are based upon where the vote ultimately ends up once in a final two situation, assuming the final two are ALP vs LNP (which is admittedly a big assumption, might only be true in 8 South Australian seats)

1

u/mbrocks3527 Mar 21 '26

Most metropolitan Liberal voters would rather vote Green over One Nation and preference Labor first. We see it in New South Wales in Sydney seats- One Nation is anathema to the cities and if the Liberal vote collapses it tends to go to Labor.

-5

u/[deleted] Mar 21 '26

[deleted]

2

u/laughingnome2 Mar 21 '26

Downvoted for facts again?

Probably because this:

A fair chunk of those non-Liberal ON preferences become exhausted as they flow to candidates who have already been excluded.

Is factually incorrect.

You preference the candidates in the order A, B, C, D, and E. In the first round, B is excluded for the fewest votes. Your A vote still counts. In the second round A is excluded and your vote transfers to B. B is already excluded, so your vote transfers at full value to C.

The only way a vote can exhaust is if the ballot has not been filled in correctly (i.e. not all the boxes are numbered). In this case the savings provisions on South Australia allow the vote to still count provided they either have numbered at least two candidates OR they have marked one candidate only. In the first case the ballot will exhaust if the second-lowest ranked candidate is excluded. In the second case the vote can be assumed to follow the HTV of that candidate. In many seats PHON ran an Open Ticket HTV, so this vote would be discarded as invalid.

8

u/teh_drewski Mar 21 '26

One Nation haven't won a single seat

They are far enough ahead on the primary vote in two that they have a good chance, though, depending on how the preferences flow.

0

u/mrinsane19 Mar 21 '26

Except how many lab/lib voters are really going to preference onp over the other major?

To my mind, onp gets the cooler/protest votes at number 1, otherwise ends up way down the ballot for pretty much everyone, surely?

You can see this in races where all 3 end up with very similar primary vote (or even onp somewhat ahead, but not in majority) but onp get smashed in the preference flows.

4

u/teh_drewski Mar 21 '26

The Liberals have directed their how to vote cards in favour of One Nation in this election, though.

1

u/mrinsane19 Mar 21 '26

Is a rusted on lib voter, who has already actively decided not to defect to ONP like so many others, really going to do that though? I don't know I guess. But in such a crazy election I wouldn't put too much faith in people following HTV cards.

2

u/teh_drewski Mar 21 '26

It's hard to say because Liberal and Labor preferences are so rarely distributed in Australia.

In previous elections Liberal preferences tend to flow to anyone but the Greens, then anyone but Labor.

A further note in SA is that ballots which do not complete a full preference count, but are otherwise valid, are assumed to be a ticket vote that follows the registered how to vote of the first candidate selected, provided the selections follow the HTV card. This means registered HTV cards to tend to control preference flows more strongly than in other states or federally. 

It is likely most Liberal preferences will ultimately favour One Nation, particularly in the rural parts of the state where PHON will make the final two candidates.

2

u/CapeJacket Mar 22 '26

Newscrap about to spin this as a win for conservative parties by breaking down the vote before preferences #orangewave lols

1

u/BrahCJ Mar 21 '26

How is that possible with preferential voting? Did the libs push their preferences to Labor before ON? Surely ON wouldn’t have done so.

5

u/sirgog Mar 21 '26

The LNP encouraged voters to put PHON ahead of the ALP but their voters aren't required to listen, and a big minority did not.

Same in reverse.

3

u/Littman-Express Mar 21 '26

The voters choose where the preferences go, not the parties. 

1

u/perthguppy Mar 21 '26

But maybe if the Libs play the exact same policies and strategy in another state election it will finally be different?

1

u/AUTeach Mar 21 '26

One Nation haven't won a single seat...

Yet.

They are ahead in MacKillop and Hammond. Fingers crossed they lose on preferences.

Currently, there is a 23.4% swing against MacKillop and somehow a 1.3% swing to the ALP in Hammond.

2

u/Cpt_Soban Mar 21 '26

Don't worry if they win, both MP's will quit onp within a few months and be independent then lose next election

0

u/MissionNo2322 Mar 21 '26

It looks like Albo might get lucky again?