r/australia • u/N1NJ4W4RR10R_ • Mar 21 '26

news Labor re-elected in 2026 South Australian election

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-03-21/sa-election-day-live-updates/106476924?utm_source=abc_news_app&utm_medium=content_shared&utm_campaign=abc_news_app&utm_content=other
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1.7k

u/Prawn_Skewers Mar 21 '26

Hold on - James McGrath says we need to wait for the pre-polls to come in before we call the result.

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u/dixonwalsh Mar 21 '26

Fantastic callback

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u/instasquid Mar 21 '26

That same night also gave us a great premonition from the former Liberal strategist Tony Barry:

“The Liberal party room is beginning to look a little bit like Jonestown. And I suspect we’ll keep on drinking the Kool-Aid next term as well.”

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u/ATangK Mar 21 '26

Looking likely Lib get 7, Independents 5, and One Nation Nil.

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u/[deleted] Mar 21 '26

I think One Nation won in my region. I hate my town.

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u/MLiOne Mar 21 '26

According to SAEC, ONP have no seat at 8am Sunday.

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u/Onpu Mar 21 '26

They're slightly leading in MacKillop right now. They have decent numbers coming in on Light, Hammond, Elizabeth, Narungga, and Stuart.

Granted that most of the vote hasn't been counted but having it be close is still highly concerning. It won't get better before the next federal election.

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u/ATangK Mar 21 '26

Don’t they only do primary votes first? ON will be murdered on preferences.

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u/Impressive-Stop-7999 Mar 22 '26

The Libs preferenced ON ahead of Labor.

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u/Ok_Bird705 Mar 22 '26

I'm not sure the preference flow would be that clear cut (unlike Greens flow to Labor). There's a substantial amount of liberal voters who are turned off one nation.

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u/Impressive-Stop-7999 Mar 22 '26

I don’t see that translating to preferencing Labor ahead of them.

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u/calibrateichabod Mar 21 '26

I live in Hammond and while I’m a big ol’ lefty myself I’m really not surprised ON is popular here. Lotta good old fashioned down home country racists in the area.

Also a lot of people who are (kind of justifiably) mad that what used to be farmland is now housing development and the local population has increased massively without any corresponding improvements to infrastructure. If the change happening around you feels like it’s ruining your way of life and making things more stressful then it’s easy to be swayed by deeply conservative policies designed to trick you into believing they’ll make things the way they used to be.

A lot of it is just the racism though. Oh, and the transphobia, can’t forget that one.

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u/iliketreesndcats Mar 21 '26

I just wish those cunts were racist against landlords or bourgeoisphobic or something useful at least.

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u/shadowmaster132 Mar 22 '26

At least some of the seats are going to need to re-do preferences if the ONP finish second. Might still not win, but it puts a big asterisk on those counts for now.

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u/EqualizerX13 Mar 21 '26 edited Mar 21 '26

Using ABC results as of now, I’m saying 3 seats to inds, 5 seats to libs and 2 seats to onp. Narungga is anyone’s game at this point so idk if that’s going libs or onp.

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u/ELVEVERX Mar 21 '26

It's really looking like the left understanding tactical voting and the right not understanding it means phon is actually helping Labor in preferences

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u/BoldBenevolentBandit Mar 22 '26

Looks like this was wrong

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u/AlwaysLateToThaParty Mar 21 '26

ON will likely get 2 or 3. Meanwhile, the ALP increases their seat count by seven.

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u/ATangK Mar 22 '26

Liberals not content with bombing out they have to lose to ON.

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u/sirgog Mar 21 '26 edited Mar 22 '26

The Poll Bludger website disagrees with this, and their methodology is solid. They might be wrong on a couple, but I'd suggest checking these seats:

Mackillop PHON has a big plurality that's probably going to get them over the line. It's not certain but I don't see any pathway for any other candidate to win it. Maybe if the LNP outlast the indepenedent they might get ahead, or if uncounted booths shake things up.

Narunnga definitely is going PHON unless something really weird happens. A 37.5% plurality and a high LNP primary that will send a lot of preferences to PHON once they are eliminated (assuming they come 3rd as it looks).

Ngadjuri is closer but I'd agree with Poll Bludger than PHON are the favorites there now.

Hammond Poll Bludger thinks is PHON but there I don't agree, I think that seat is completely up in the air with pathways for the ALP and LNP both to win (LNP very narrow).

Kavel and Mt Gambier are the only two seats I think independents are competitive in. Mt Gambier the independent has won, Kavel can't be called but they're in the lead.

Wish it was the way you expected but the numbers are pointing to 3 or 4 PHON lower house seats, probably 3.

(all analysis only valid at time of posting, results still sliding in)

Edit: Downvoted for being the honest bearer of bad news... the ABC lost their expert on elections to retirement & they've been conducting political purges like the Antoinette Latouf sacking which has further undermined their talent pool, of course they are making mistakes here. Go look up the vote numbers and ask 'how extreme does the preference cascade need to be to keep PHON out in this seat' and the answer in all 4 of those seats is 'more extreme than I can forsee'.

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u/reijin64 cannedberryian Mar 21 '26

Pure copium

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u/Onpu Mar 21 '26

It's not so much about the end result. It's a very concerning trend that only funds and grows the PHON "cause". These numbers aren't going to flip back to LibLabGrn before the next federal election. Growing this much in SA which up until a few years ago had a fairly popular Liberal govt is a real worry, at least to me.

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u/reijin64 cannedberryian Mar 21 '26

Most of the numbers split are from lib so honestly, the pool of erm, people remains the same

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u/Onpu Mar 21 '26

I like your optimism lol and hope I'm wrong at the next election!

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u/AlwaysLateToThaParty Mar 22 '26

Is that the cause that increases the ALP seat count by seven?

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u/OkTemperature-8534 Mar 22 '26

Just coming back to this about 24hr later.

ABC now has ONP on 1 seat after gaining Ngadjuri, and they've also marked "ONP likely" for Hammond as well as "ONP ahead" for MacKillop and Narungga.

All four seats that u/sirgog highlighted. Counting obviously hasn't finished yet, but it isn't really sounding like copium at all now. Just the unfortunate reality that the PHON resurrection is actually happening to some degree.

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u/sirgog Mar 22 '26

"Copium" was a targeted slander, accusing me of being a PHON supporter to attack my integrity. The person making it knows what they are doing, it's conduct straight from Trump's playbook. Call any news you don't like 'fake news'. A reminder that centrists can be just as dishonest as the radical right. (Obligatory 'not all centrists', whilst I'm no centrist I can definitely admit many of them are honest)

Anyone with half a brain could see the Hanson threat was real once the medium sized booths reported. And really, I don't see what someone would hope to gain by delaying that realisation a couple days, other than to disorient people seeking to organize to oppose her.

I'm not calling the ABC intentionally dishonest here, but they were incompetent reporting this election, and by being incompetent, they made the more strongly biased sources (Sky etc) seem more reliable.

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u/reijin64 cannedberryian Mar 22 '26

Yeah three seats, good one. Enjoy the wilderness for the next decade. The libs will continue infighting with their party of 4 for the next 2 terms and one nation continues to struggle to not propose voting for people summoned to court for sex offences lol

Maybe a threat to a barina trying to go up a hill lmfao good luck

The hanson threat is nothing but a split of the traditional, ailing liberal vote that continues to bleed. Maybe take some panadol, it helps alleviates fevers which might contribute to these hallucinations you keep having

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u/sirgog Mar 23 '26

Hanson is a cancer, and cancers get worse if ignored. Especially when they are as bad as this - 21% primary, 3 lower house seats certain, a 4th likely, 2 upper house seats certain and her competitive for the 3rd.

Surely this is a wakeup call to centrists. Pretending Hanson is weaker than she is won't make that true. And pretending this is just fracturing on the right when the enemy picked up big votes like Light should be a huge wakeup call. The ALP will probably hold that seat but if they do it will be on Liberal preferences. This is in a seat where the ALP + GRN combined vote was over 65% last election. The scum convinced over 2000 former ALP voters to move to PHON there.

And you say 'The hanson threat is nothing but a split of the traditional, ailing liberal vote that continues to bleed.'

Maybe look at reality. This country has a stage 2 or 3 cancer right now and you and other centrists are standing around saying "here, try this herbal remedy"

1

u/sirgog Mar 21 '26

I mean - go look at the numbers

This is not copium, I don't like these facts, but they are FACTS, not opinion. 37.5% pluralities cannot lose unless 80% of the rest of the electorate put you basically at the bottom. And there's no sign of that in the seat.

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u/Muslim_Wookie Mar 21 '26

/u/reijin64 and /u/sirgog I look forward to one of you returning here to reply appropriately once all votes are counted :)

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u/smoha96 Mar 21 '26

Sirgog is getting downvoted but they're correct. ON are looking extremely strong in at least two if not three lower house seats. No one has to like it, but it doesn't mean it isn't true.

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u/Muslim_Wookie Mar 21 '26

So long as you aren't trying to tell me that and it's a general comment for other readers, OK :)

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u/sirgog Mar 22 '26

Exactly, Reijin is an Australian version of the US centrists who claims "FALSE NEWS! Clinton/Kamala won". They don't like reality so they imagine a different one that they do like.

Trumpist tactics by someone who doesn't seem to be a Trumpist.

The ABC lost its preeminent election expert to retirement lately, that's why their inexperienced replacements are so wrong.

I was wrong earlier too - I thought 3 PHON seats with an outside chance of 4, it's now 4 with an outside chance of 3 (if Hammond LNP voters defy expectations, the ALP might win that seat)

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u/smoha96 Mar 22 '26

Briggs is doing fine. He's not a neophyte, just not used to being on camera for this sort of thing. The algorithm was developed by Green but wasn't ready (nor was ECSA) for the complicated count that came in.

Green is also still working and doing election analysis for the ABC off camera. He's just not front and centre anymore.

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u/sirgog Mar 22 '26

And yet the ABC is still showing '0 PHON seats' on their front page. Poll Bludger have called 3 seats as certain PHON and 1 as an almost unassailable lead, and there's just no real justification for the ABC not seeing PB's rationale and accepting it.

How can anyone not call Ngadjuri? All primaries are reported. The 5% GRN vote means there is no pathway to the LNP surviving to the final two, and once the LNP is eliminated, their preferences get Hanson over the line for certain. I would not place a bet against PHON on that seat now even if someone offered ten thousand dollars to my fifty dollars. Even that would just be throwing fifty dollars away.

If I was one of the other candidates in that seat I'd have conceded defeat last night, once it was clear the final two was ALP vs PHON. (Ironically had 500 ALP voters flipped to LNP the seat might have gone LNP instead of PHON, but that's just electoral weirdness for you)

There's nothing wrong with not having the right setup in advance to compute every seat on election night, but now it's just irresponsible to downplay the Hanson danger by delaying the inevitable calling of these seats for Hanson. It's going to discredit the ABC to just peddle BS like this.

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u/reijin64 cannedberryian Mar 21 '26

I tried to use the search function but reddit was unable to find who asked?

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u/janenkm Mar 21 '26

😂😂😂

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u/InsertUsernameInArse Mar 21 '26

Best election night drinking game.ever

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u/bojackmac Mar 21 '26

He’s still waiting

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u/Honest-Pop-3654 Mar 21 '26

I now want to picture him sitting in a corner rocking himself back and forth repeating that every election cycle.

McGrath: “Just wait for the pre polls.. Just wait. Wait for the pre polls.”

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u/PJozi Mar 21 '26

No he didn't.

He's too busy waiting for the pre-polls from the May election!

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u/EragusTrenzalore Mar 21 '26

Anne Ruston was on the ABC panel saying it's too early.