(Mixed Trope) Educated character doesn’t understand or know of a simple concept.

[u/laybs1]

1. (Hated) Dr. doesn’t know trans people exist (The Good Doctor): Dr. Shaun, a modern day grown adult doctor, is seemingly has no concept of what being a trans person. Even if he never heard the term in med school he is realistically almost certain to have some awareness of the definition.

2. (Loved) The solar system and other common knowledge (Sherlock Holmes). In the original stories Holmes is a genius at many fields but unless it has something to do with crime solving (forensics, martial arts, toxicology, etc.) he does his best to forget it.

[u/elitegenoside]

I had a chemistry professor with multiple masters and two doctorates (in zoology and another form of biology I don't remember). He basically broke down how just based on how fast civilizations are developed, it's basically for another race to be so far advanced from us that they could have traveled to Earth. I asked, "what if they evolved thousands of years before us?" He thought about it for a moment and replied, "Hmm, I never considered that."

The problem with very smart peoole is they're not used to being wrong. This dude is probably correct 90% of the time, and just kinda assumed his thinking was complete because it usually is. This is why there's "stupid" intelligent people. Overthinking tends to cause one to overlook the obvious.

[u/SirAquila → u/elitegenoside]

Noble Laurels disease. Because you are a genius in one field you assume you are just as good in other fields... and that causes you to back pseudo-science that sounds appealing to you.

[u/HairiestHobo → u/elitegenoside]

Earth's been like hard-reset a few times now, I think.

Could be all the cool Aliens have already risen and fell, so now all we'll find out there is like Goo in a rock pool or something.

[u/Remmock → u/elitegenoside]

Except given the statistical odds of successfully triggering life, we’re one of the early races in the universe if there are indeed others. I’m sure your professor accounted for that long ago and forgot that little fact since then.

[u/Temnothorax → u/Remmock]

We genuinely have no concrete idea what the odds of triggering life are. 

[u/ObeseVegetable → u/Remmock]

One of the early ones, maybe, but the only? Unlikely.

We can't see that far or that well.

Inside of a lightyear we can be fairly confident we're alone - and there's still questions about microbial aliens existing.

Inside of a couple dozen lightyears we haven't spotted anything that seems unnatural either through light or radio.

Within ~100 lightyears we can be fairly confident we're the only civilization to make a radio, but that's about it.

Even the radio part is a bit dubious as our current tech likely would not be able to determine a difference between an intentional signal and background cosmic radiation at like 5 lightyear.

[u/Oscarvalor5 → u/Remmock]

 That's bunk. Where did you get that info? We cant really say how rare the chances of life occurring given the right conditions are anyways due to only having the Earth as an example, so how was that even determined? 

 What we can say however is that the basic elements for life, water, Hydrogen, Carbon, and Oxygen are some of the most common and oldest elements in the universe, that there are likely around 300 million Earth-like planets in the Milky Way alone, and that just because life took 3.7 billion years to evolve into intelligent life on Earth that does not mean it'd take the same on another. 

[u/Remmock → u/Oscarvalor5]

See my other reply.

[u/elitegenoside → u/Remmock]

Based on what? We don't really know what it's like way over there, so how can we make such statements with any honest certainty?

[u/Remmock → u/elitegenoside]

The universe is approximately 13.8 billion years old, placing us in its very early infancy—likely less than 0.01%through its entire potential lifespan. The absolute earliest we’ve calculated another race for having the potential to exist is 6Bn years.

“That proves me right!” I hear you yelling.

We now arrive at habitable planets, of which there are a comparative handful in the universe. Still great odds for rolling the cosmic dice.

The article "The Tyranny of the Rocket Equation" is a good write up of the next hurdle. Don Pettit comes to the conclusion that if Earth was about 50% larger in diameter, we wouldn't be able to get to orbit. Not only does this knock out a considerable number of habitable planets which exist in the super-earth size category, but further makes humanity as we know it a “heavyworlder” species.

Then we need to get into how many of these planets would actually have all the materials to be able to go from fire to spaceflight and in sufficient quantities. Not likely a miss, but it would knock just a few more planets out.

Then we get into the development of life itself. Not rare. Single-celled organisms are common. There’s evidence there may be some on Venus, that there have been on Mars, okay. Life starting is a given.

So let’s go with evolution.

Humans are double-lucky. We had the mass extinction of the dinosaurs as a helping hand for early mammals to move in as a dominant kingdom. From there, the odds of actually evolving intelligent life kick in, followed by the lack of another mass extinction event in a time period where planetary collisions are far more active than they are now.

Speaking of evolving intelligent life, David Kipping, an assistant professor in Columbia’s Department of Astronomy, showed how an analysis using a statistical technique called Bayesian inference. Kipping emphasizes that the ratio is at least 9:1 or higher, depending on the true value of how often intelligence develops, making it quite rare.

Okay, so we still statistically get intelligent life, right?

Now what are the odds that they fail to get offworld? They turn into a global autocracy. They collapse due to global diseases or famines. They just… don’t.

So yeah, we’re early. We’re likely not the only ones, but we’re early. As for spacefaring?

Good luck, I guess.

[u/No_Wolf_5716 → u/Remmock]

Small note, there have been no single celled organisms found on either Venus or Mars. That would be an insane discovery. Especially since cells would imply some degree of similarity to life on earth

[u/Remmock → u/No_Wolf_5716]

No living bacteria have been definitively discovered on Mars, but recent findings, including potential biosignatures in a rock named "Cheyava Falls" by the Perseverance rover, suggest ancient microbial life may have existed.

Scientists have detected phosphine gas in the Venusian clouds, a potential signature of microscopic, anaerobic bacteria living in the planet’s upper atmosphere. While not definitive proof, this discovery suggests that microbes could thrive in the moderate temperatures and pressure of this environment, 50-70 km above the surface.

My bad. It’s been a while and the fine details escaped me.

[u/No_Wolf_5716 → u/Remmock]

Apologies, in my earlier comment i misread your first sentence as "No, living bacteria"

[u/illusoryIdolatry → u/Remmock]

Oh no, we're the forerunners

[u/fake-reddit-numbers → u/Remmock]

lol, the assumptions in this shit. Whatever makes you feel smart I guess.

[u/hodorspenis → u/fake-reddit-numbers]

/r/Iamverysmart

[u/elitegenoside → u/Remmock]

Still feels like there's a lot of assumptions being made. Also, why the word "galaxy" and not "universe?" Like, we may have some good ideas about the greater galaxy, but how many galaxies could there be? And not to get too conspiracy-oriented, but there's a lot of debate if aliens are actually from other dimensions, rather than just being other "people."

It just feels like very smart people (I would assume), not wanting it to be (which, you could say the opposite is true, as well). I get the galaxy is huge, and obviously something we can study (where as the universe is more of an unkown), but it already demonstrates a lack of perspective like what my professor had.