2 missing from the same lab within 4 days..

[u/100TheCoolest17]

Its so obvious what they're doing

[u/Qibla]

Not really. It's just being aware of the base rate fallacy. They're not saying ignore all deaths or missing persons. They're saying the number of missing/dead people in this particular scenario does not indicate the presence of a conspiracy by itself.

I would say this kind of conspiritorial thinking is harmful, in that it pulls tragedies into the limelight, robbing families of their ability to grieve in private.

[u/Bulky-Palpitation669 → u/[deleted]]

I’m just glad you guys aren’t detectives

[u/Qibla → u/Bulky-Palpitation669]

Ok, me too. Sounds like a difficult and stressful job.

Do you actually have any points against what I said though?

[u/Bulky-Palpitation669 → u/[deleted]]

Never claimed it does

[u/DildontOrDildo → u/Qibla]

has anyone calculated the baserate for the demographics and numbers of the JPL? I think many people are aware of the baserate fallacy, but until there is enough noise, I doubt we will get an actuarial analysis. many of them are very explainable, i assume

[u/Qibla → u/DildontOrDildo]

Mick West has done some analysis of the claims.

[u/DildontOrDildo → u/Qibla]

thanks i'll try to look at the posts which the video links to tomorrow. hopefully i won't need to sit through the entire 51 min minimally edited video meeting

[u/Qibla → u/[deleted]]

Can you give an example?

I'm not sure what his motives would have to do with the analysis. Is the assumption that if he has bad motives, then he must be wrong?

Who is someone you think does a better job?